Commentary: South Korea needs reassurance, but Trump may make demands instead at their upcoming summit

BUSAN: Later this month, South Korean President Lee Jae-myung will hold his first summit with US President Donald Trump. As a mid-sized US ally dependent on US security guarantees and market access, the summit is very important for South Korea. It will be closely watched for signals about the future of the alliance.

Unlike previous US presidents, who uniformly supported the US-South Korea alliance, Mr Trump has a more unpredictable approach to US alliances.

During his first term, he criticised the cost of stationing American troops abroad and pushed allies to shoulder more of the burden. At times, he appeared to cast doubt on whether the US would honour its security commitments.

Still, South Korea accommodated Mr Trump, with then-president Moon Jae-in going to great lengths to keep diplomacy on track, even publicly stating that Mr Trump deserved a Nobel Peace Prize for his historic summit in Singapore with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un in 2018.

But much has changed since then, and Mr Lee’s visit to Washington will reflect that.

Only into his second month in office, Mr Lee is navigating a far more complex geopolitical environment, including a deepening US-China rivalry, a more provocative North Korea and shifting regional alliances. At the same time, he faces the task of consolidating public support early in his term.

Mr Trump, meanwhile, is in his second term as president with fewer conventional guardrails than before. He is no longer surrounded by the serious diplomatic professionals of his first term.

Compounding matters, Mr Lee has no flashy diplomatic event to offer. Unlike in 2018, North Korea has expressed no interest in meeting either Mr Lee or Mr Trump.