Snap Insight: As Thailand and Cambodia escalate border spat, the personal ties that once united now fuel hostility

On the surface, wounded pride appears to be the most proximate reason for Mr Hun Sen turning his back on the Shinawatras. However, there are reasons to believe that there are larger factors at play in the background.

A HIGH-STAKES GAME

The first is that, up until recently, Mr Thaksin’s Pheu Thai party had been pushing strongly to legalise casinos.

It is no secret that Thais constitute a key group of customers and source of labour for Cambodia’s many casinos, especially those along their shared land border. According to Thai media reports in June, several Cambodian casinos that relied on cross-border travel were forced to close temporarily due to border restrictions.

The Shinawatras’ fervent push for casino legalisation would therefore dent demand for Cambodian casinos and consequently, negatively impact the Cambodian economy. The Cambodian gambling sector provided over US$63.1 million in casino tax revenue to the government in 2024.

Although the Thai government has since dropped the legislative Bill – mainly to avoid a potential no-confidence vote against Ms Paetongtarn – the proposal has likely caused considerable concern in Phnom Penh. Pheu Thai is almost certain to revive the legalisation effort as and when political conditions improve.