If you are wondering whether Ubisoft Entertainment’s beaten down share price now represents value or a value trap, you are not alone. This article is built to help you think that through clearly.
The stock has been volatile recently, with a 14.5% gain over the last 7 days but declines of 26.1% over 30 days, 27.2% year to date and 59.2% over 1 year, and an even larger 77.4% and 93.7% slide over 3 and 5 years.
Recent coverage has focused on Ubisoft Entertainment’s share price swings and what they might say about changing expectations for the business, as the stock has moved sharply over short and long time frames. That context is important because sentiment shifts like these often influence how investors think about whether a valuation is too pessimistic or still generous.
On our checks, Ubisoft Entertainment scores a 5 out of 6 valuation rating. This suggests several metrics currently point to the shares screening as undervalued. We will walk through different valuation approaches next and finish with an even more complete way to think about value at the end of the article.
A Discounted Cash Flow, or DCF, model estimates what a company might be worth by projecting its future cash flows and then discounting them back to today using a risk adjusted rate. It is essentially asking what all those future € cash flows are worth in today’s money.
For Ubisoft Entertainment, the model used is a 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity approach. The latest twelve month free cash flow is a loss of €44.46m, so the starting point is not a positive cash generator. Analysts provide cash flow estimates for several years, and then Simply Wall St extends those projections further out. For example, the ten year view includes forecast free cash flow of €343.00m in 2030, with discounted values provided for each year from 2026 to 2035.
When all those projected and discounted cash flows are added up, the DCF model arrives at an estimated intrinsic value of €17.30 per share. Compared to the current share price, this implies a 73.3% discount, which indicates that the shares screen as materially undervalued on this model alone.
For companies where earnings are weak or volatile, the P/S ratio can be a useful way to compare what the market is paying for each unit of revenue rather than profit. It is still shaped by growth expectations and risk, because investors typically accept a higher P/S when they expect stronger growth or see the business as lower risk, and a lower P/S when growth is uncertain or risks are higher.
Ubisoft Entertainment currently trades on a P/S ratio of 0.33x. That sits well below the Entertainment industry average of 1.99x and the peer average of 2.38x, so the shares are pricing each euro of sales more cheaply than these benchmarks. Simply Wall St also calculates a Fair Ratio of 1.39x for Ubisoft Entertainment. This is the P/S multiple its model suggests based on factors such as earnings growth, profit margins, industry, market cap and specific risks.
This Fair Ratio is more tailored than a straight comparison with peers or the sector, because it adjusts for Ubisoft Entertainment’s own characteristics rather than assuming it should match the broader group. With the current 0.33x P/S sitting well below the 1.39x Fair Ratio, the shares screen as undervalued on this metric.
Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to think about valuation. On Simply Wall St you can use Narratives, where you set out your story for Ubisoft Entertainment, link it to specific forecasts for revenue, earnings and margins, and the platform turns that into a Fair Value you can compare against the current price to help inform your decision making.
Each Narrative connects your view of the business to a live financial model that sits inside the Community page. When new information such as news, index changes, activist proposals or earnings updates arrives, the Fair Value updates automatically without you having to rebuild anything.
For Ubisoft Entertainment today, one investor might build a very cautious Narrative anchored around a €9.00 fair value, while another might focus on a more optimistic view closer to €21.30. Seeing these side by side on the platform can help you work out which story you find more realistic and what that means for your own decision making.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Companies discussed in this article include UBI.PA.
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