Key Takeaways
- PENN will report Q4 results on Feb. 26, with revenues seen up 5.1% y/y to $1.75B.
- PENN’s retail demand and Hollywood Casino Joliet debut are expected to lift top-line growth.
- PENN aims for stronger digital margins as it shifts from ESPN Bet to the Score platform.
PENN Entertainment, Inc. (PENN – Free Report) is scheduled to report fourth-quarter 2025 results on Feb. 26, before the opening bell.
In the last reported quarter, its earnings and revenues missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 120% and 0.5%, respectively.
This leading gaming and racing company’s earnings beat estimates in two of the trailing four quarters, and missed on two occasions, with an average surprise of 59.1%.
PENN’s Q4 Earnings & Revenue Expectations
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for PENN’s fourth-quarter loss per share has narrowed to 21 cents from 22 cents in the past 30 days. In the prior-year quarter, the company reported a loss per share of 44 cents.
The consensus estimate for revenues is pegged at $1.75 billion, indicating a 5.1% year-over-year rise.
Factors Likely to Shape PENN’s Quarterly Results
PENN is likely to deliver year-over-year revenue growth in the fourth quarter, supported by stable underlying demand across its retail portfolio, particularly in markets not impacted by new supply, supported by healthy visitation trends and solid spend per visit. Early momentum at Hollywood Casino Joliet, including strong database growth and largely incremental revenue contribution, is likely to support top-line performance.
The recently opened Hollywood Casino Joliet is likely to provide incremental top-line contribution, supported by strong early database activation and improved customer mix. Digital revenues should also benefit from continued momentum in the North American iCasino business, which has been generating record gaming revenue levels, supported by robust cross-sell from online sports betting and higher monthly active users.
In addition, improved product enhancements and retention initiatives across its interactive platforms are expected to aid engagement heading into the seasonal strength of the football calendar.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter revenues in the Northeast and Midwest segments is pegged at $693 million and $302 million, respectively, reflecting growth from $689.9 million and $290.7 million reported in the prior-year quarter.
For the West and South segments, revenues are estimated at $135 million and $282 million, respectively. This implies year-over-year growth in the West from $129.4 million, while the South is expected to decline modestly from $284.2 million in the prior-year quarter.
On the margins front, the company is expected to demonstrate improved margin efficiency as it completes its transition away from the high-cost ESPN Bet marketing agreement to its internally controlled, more cost-effective theScore-branded platform. The removal of fixed media obligations, along with a greater mix of higher-margin iCasino revenues and more targeted marketing toward higher-return markets and customer cohorts, should support stronger digital unit economics and enhance overall profitability visibility.
However, near-term margins may remain pressured by elevated promotional reinvestment and competitive intensity in retail markets facing new supply, labor cost inflation and retention-related expenses. Interactive margins could also be affected by sports betting hold volatility and lower OSB volumes, while rebranding costs tied to the ESPN transition, triple-net lease escalators and ongoing development-related expenditures may weigh on fourth-quarter profitability.
What Our Model Unveils for PENN Stock
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for PENN Entertainment this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat, which is not the case here, as elaborated below.
PENN currently has an Earnings ESP of -44.52% and a Zacks Rank of 3. You can uncover the best stocks before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Stocks With the Favorable Combination
Here are some stocks from the Zacks Consumer Discretionary sector that investors may consider, as our model indicates they have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat.
Cintas Corporation (CTAS – Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +0.80% and a Zacks Rank of 2. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
CTAS’ earnings beat estimates in each of the last four quarters, the average surprise being 3%. Cintas’ earnings for the fourth quarter of 2025 are expected to increase 8.9% year over year.
Civeo Corporation (CVEO – Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +70.97% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present.
CVEO reported better-than-expected earnings in one of the trailing four quarters and missed thrice, the average surprise being negative 251.1%. Civeo’s earnings for the to-be-reported quarter are expected to increase 53.4%.
Lifetime Brands, Inc. (LCUT – Free Report) presently has an Earnings ESP of +37.93% and a Zacks Rank of 3.
LCUT’s earnings beat estimates in two of the last four quarters and missed on the remaining two occasions, the average surprise being 60.1%. Lifetime Brands’ earnings for the fourth quarter of 2025 are expected to decline 47.3% year over year.
