Commentary: With PDI-P nomination of Ganjar Pranowo, Indonesia headed for three-way presidential race

Prabowo is Jokowi’s minister but is not seen as the president’s heir. Prabowo can be said to be the most important man behind Anies in the 2017 Jakarta gubernatorial election. Many Anies supporters became Prabowo supporters for the latter’s failed 2019 presidential bid.

But now Prabowo is projecting himself as someone who is free from perennial politicking. He seems confident that political momentum is on his side and has downplayed the possibility that he will settle to be Ganjar’s vice-presidential running-mate.

ELITES ARE BEGINNING TO MANOEUVRE

Not only have the party coalitions been shaken by Ganjar’s nomination but the elites are also beginning to manoeuvre. Several names have been floated as vice presidential candidates.

Sandiaga Uno, the minister of tourism and creative economy, has already signalled his ambition by quitting his Gerindra deputy chairman post. It is widely believed he did so to join the PPP, an Islamic party whose heyday was during and immediately after the New Order.

Sandiaga, one of the richest people in the country, will be a hot commodity for any of the three potential presidential election candidates. As a running-mate, Sandiaga’s war chest will boost anyone’s campaign.

Meanwhile, Ganjar’s electability will influence how Indonesia’s biggest parties jostle for positions in 2024. President Jokowi is trying to become a kingmaker and may yet facilitate a grand coalition. Given his closeness to two of the three candidates, Jokowi will win if either Prabowo or Ganjar become president.

However, if Jokowi’s idea of a grand coalition fails to materialise in the sense of a clear consensus on a single sure winner, the current three-way race would most likely lead to two rounds of presidential election voting (because no candidate pair will secure a majority of the national vote).

In that scenario, Indonesia’s 2024 presidential election outcome would be more in the people’s, not the politicians’, hands. While two rounds of voting will add to electoral costs, democracy is worth the price.

Made Supriatma is a Visiting Fellow in the Indonesia Studies Programme, ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute. This commentary first appeared on ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute’s blog, The Fulcrum.