Prigozhin’s mutiny, Putin’s mess: how Lukashenko came out looking like a ‘tactical winner’

On June 24, Russian President Vladimir Putin faced the most serious challenge to his power in his 23-year-long rule. Surprisingly, the challenge came from within his regime, when the famously volatile Wagner group chief Yevgeny Prigozhin seized control of the headquarters of the Russian Southern Military Distrinct in Rostov-on-Don, advanced on Moscow and shot down military aircraft along the way.

As Russia teetered on the brink of civil war, Prigozhin suddenly made a U-turn when his men were just over 200 km from Moscow. A deal was clinched to allow Prigozhin and some of his fighters to go to Belarus.

FRANCE 24: What will the presence of Prigozhin and the Wagner group in Belarus mean for Lukashenko’s regime?

Pavel Slunkin: The main point is that we do not know if the Wagner Group will be in Belarus. We also do not know what their status might be, and what they will be doing there. We do know Lukashenko met with Prigozhin in Minsk after Prigozhin’s plane landed in Belarus on Tuesday.

There are contradictory interests between Yevgeny Prigozhin, Alexander Lukashenko and Vladimir Putin. Prigozhin wants to maintain control over Wagner as an autonomous and independent entity but Lukashenko wants to avoid this because he knows Wagner troops can turn against him, the same way they turned against Putin this weekend.

Yet converging interests exist as well: The Belarusian leader has said his own army could benefit from the experience of Wagner troops. Both Lukashenko and Prigozhin would also agree to register Wagner in Belarus. Before, Wagner was operating as a de facto branch of the Russian army even though Russian law labels private militaries as illegal. 

Finally, Lukashenko can use the Wagner soldiers to defend himself. The Kastuś Kalinoŭski Regiment is a group of Belarusian opposition volunteers, which have been fighting in Ukraine on Kyiv’s side. They have claimed that once they liberate Ukraine from Russian occupation, they intend to liberate Belarus from Lukashenko’s rule.  

FRANCE 24: Putin has used various means in the past to eliminate his opponents. Is Prigozhin safe in Belarus after the rebellion he led this weekend?  

Pavel Slunkin: Putin was humiliated last weekend when he was in the worst position he ever was during his rule. No matter how many promises Lukashenko gives Prigozhin about his security, his long-term security is not guaranteed.

Russian services felt they could operate on Belarusian territory even before 2020, [after mass demonstrations broke out throughout Belarus and the Kremlin responded with logistical assistance, editor’s note]. If Putin asked Lukashenko for help, I am sure Lukashenko would offer it.

FRANCE 24: What has been the reaction of the Belarusian public and the state media to the deal mediated by Lukashenko?

Pavel Slunkin: It is very hard to know what people think because independent media does not exist in Belarus. Police check people’s mobile phones on the street, at work, at border controls. If they find that people subscribe to media outlets or certain Telegram channels, labelled as “extremist” by the government, they can go to prison.

The website Zerkalo.io (Mirror) recently held a poll asking people what they think about Prigozhin’s presence in Belarus. The responses showed people are desperate and frustrated about their country being drawn into Russia’s war in Ukraine. They are angry about Russia stationing nuclear warheads in their country and war criminals hosted on national territory.

FRANCE 24: Many experts have said that Belarus is becoming a vassal state of Russia. Could the recent events strengthen Lukashenko’s position as a statesman?

Pavel Slunkin: In all of this, Lukashenko looks like a tactical winner and Putin looks weakened, which is something extraordinary. Prigozhin put everything on the table, he took all possible risks and now he has nowhere to go.

Lukashenko did a service for his boss in Moscow, but by saving Putin, he also saved himself. The Belarusian president showed Western diplomats he could negotiate with Putin, proving he has some autonomy left.

This does not change the fact that Lukashenko remains highly dependent on Russia: 70% of Belarus’s exports are sent to Russia and 90% of Belarusian exports depend on Russian infrastructure. Russia has agreed to sell its gas to Belarus at the lowest prices in the world. Belarus is fundamentally dependent on Russia and this trajectory will continue. No amount of mediation skills can change that.  

FRANCE 24: The relationship between Putin and Lukashenko is well established, but how do you evaluate Prigozhin and Lukashenko’s relationship?

Pavel Slunkin: Lukashenko says he has known Prigozhin personally for 20 years but I would not trust this. Independent journalists, labelled as “extremist” by the Belarusian regime, found that Lukashenko first met Prigozhin in Saint Petersburg in 2002, when Prigozhin was serving state leaders at a dinner.

Lukashenko might try to exaggerate the closeness of his relationship with Prigozhin but the fact is that he did not even have his phone number last weekend during the mutiny. The Belarusians found Prigozhin’s phone number through the FSB [Russian security services, editor’s note].

FRANCE 24: How dangerous for Ukraine and NATO is the presence of Wagner troops in Belarus?

Pavel Slunkin: I do not think the Wagner group will really pose a threat to NATO, and we can imagine Belarus already has troops stationed along the border with Ukraine. If we look at it rationally, Wagner is divided now. One part will join the Russian army, another part will return to civilian life and the last part will continue serving Wagner, but in Belarus; 25,000 soldiers split into three, what does this offer in terms of military might?

If you look back to February 2022, even with the large number of Russian soldiers who tried to capture Kyiv from Belarus, they failed. Ukraine was weak at the time but now they have drones, landmines along the border with Belarus and weapons coming from the West. Wagner would need many more people than the Russian army had a year ago if they were to attack Ukraine.