WASHINGTON: A Chinese blockade on Taiwan would be a “monster risk” for Beijing and would likely fail, while a military invasion would be extremely difficult, senior Pentagon officials told Congress on Tuesday (Sep 19).
Beijing claims self-ruled Taiwan as its territory, vowing to seize it one day, and officials in Washington – a key ally of Taipei – have cited 2027 as a possible timeline for an invasion.
The growing worries come as China has ramped up military pressures on Taiwan, holding large-scale wargames simulating a blockade on the island, while conducting near-daily warplane incursions and sending Chinese vessels around its waters.
Ely Ratner, the Pentagon’s assistant defence secretary for Indo-Pacific Security Affairs, said a blockade would be “a monster risk for the PRC (People’s Republic of China)”, referring to China by its official name.
“It would likely not succeed, and it would be a huge risk of escalation for the PRC, where it would likely have to consider whether or not it was willing to ultimately start attacking commercial maritime vessels,” Ratner told the House Armed Services Committee.
“A blockade would be devastating to the international community and would likely induce the broad-based wide deep response from the international community … that Beijing would likely be trying to avoid,” he said.
He was echoed by Army Major General Joseph McGee, a vice director of the Joint Staff.
“It is an option but it is probably not a highly likely military option … It is much easier to talk about a blockade than actually do a blockade,” McGee said.
Source: CNA
