‘External forces’ behind Indonesian minister’s shock resignation as Golkar Party chairman, threatening democracy: Analysts

WHY DID AIRLANGGA RESIGN?

Given that Golkar, under Mr Airlangga, was part of the Advanced Indonesia Coalition (KIM coalition) along with Gerindra, the Democratic Party, and the National Mandate Party (PAN) that successfully backed Mr Prabowo during the February presidential election, why did he need to resign?

Analysts point to events leading up to the country’s regional elections on Nov 27 to pick local leaders such as governors, deputy governors, and regents in all 38 provinces of the republic. 

Political parties must submit their nominees to the respective election commission from Aug 27 to 29 to contest in the local elections.

With just two weeks to go, discussions are intensifying and parties are particularly invested in nominating candidates for the governorship of capital Jakarta as well as neighbouring West Java province which, with 50 million people, is the most populous province in the country. 

Mr Aditya believes Mr Airlangga’s resignation may have something to do with his comments about the local elections. 

“They are now after the local elections, so the already-formed KIM coalition can be part of the local government. 

“If you observe carefully, Golkar is manoeuvring with the local elections… And I’m not sure the two powerful people are happy with this,” said Mr Aditya, referring to Mr Widodo and Mr Prabowo.

In the past few months, many have wondered where popular former West Java governor and Golkar member Ridwan Kamil will contest, after billboards of him with the tagline “on the way Jakarta” adorned some parts of the capital. 

Although Mr Ridwan is popular in West Java, many polls have shown he is less so in the capital, where former Jakarta governor and presidential candidate Anies Baswedan has shown interest in running again. 

Meanwhile, speculation has also mounted on whether Mr Widodo’s second son, 29-year-old Kaesang Pangarep, will run and where. 

Local media speculated that Mr Kaesang, chairman of the Indonesian Solidarity Party (PSI), may be eyeing the Jakarta governorship, which is seen as a stepping stone to the presidency, as demonstrated by Mr Widodo.

But opinion surveys have shown Mr Kaesang may not win. 

He could, however, stand a chance to run as deputy governor. 

Earlier this month, however, Mr Airlangga said Mr Ridwan would run in Jakarta. A few days later, he said Mr Ridwan’s deputy would be a person whose initial is S.

This diminished Mr Kaesang’s chance to run in Jakarta, as his party PSI does not have enough seats in Jakarta’s parliament to nominate a candidate alone. 

A day before Mr Airlangga’s resignation, the Attorney General’s Office (AGO) summoned him for questioning on Tuesday (Aug 13). 

Last year, Mr Airlangga had been questioned as a witness in the AGO’s corruption investigation on export permits secured for crude palm oil (CPO) and its derivatives in 2021 and 2022, when Indonesia was experiencing a shortage of cooking oil and shipments were restricted. Tempo reported on Monday that Mr Airlangga resigned for alleged links to the case.

Analysts say he was possibly held “hostage” with the threat of further legal action if he did not step down.

“The characteristic of removing a leader in Indonesia is by giving pressure related to law affairs – law as a political weapon,” said Mr Nicky Fahrizal, a Jakarta-based political analyst with the think tank Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).

“This (appears to be) a political hostage situation and is not good for democracy,” added Mr Aditya. 

“This is transactional politics. There is bargaining here.”