Thai lawmakers vote Thaksin’s daughter Paetongtarn Shinawatra to be next PM

HOSTILE CLIMATE

The fall of Srettha after less than a year in office will be a stark reminder of the kind of hostility Paetongtarn could face, with Thailand trapped in a tumultuous cycle of coups and court rulings that have disbanded political parties and toppled multiple governments and prime ministers.

The Shinawatras and their business allies have borne the brunt of the crisis, which pits parties with mass appeal against a powerful nexus of conservatives, old-money families and royalist generals with deep connections in key institutions.

Nine days ago, the same court that dismissed Srettha over a cabinet appointment also dissolved the anti-establishment Move Forward Party – the 2023 election winner – over a campaign to amend a law against insulting the crown, which it said risked undermining the constitutional monarchy. 

The hugely popular opposition has since regrouped under a new vehicle, People’s Party.

The upheaval in the past few days also indicates a breakdown in a fragile truce struck between Thaksin and his rivals in the establishment and military old guard, which had enabled the tycoon’s dramatic return from 15 years of self-exile in 2023 and ally Srettha to become premier the same day.

The decision to put Paetongtarn in play at such a critical juncture has surprised many analysts, who had expected Thaksin to delay his dynasty and avoid exposing Paetongtarn to the type of battles that led to the downfall of himself and sister Yingluck, who both fled overseas to avoid jail after their governments were ousted by the military.

“The Shinawatras’ gambit here is risky,” said Nattabhorn Buamahakul, Managing Partner at government affairs consultancy, Vero Advocacy.

“It puts Thaksin’s daughter in the crosshairs and a vulnerable position.”

Tiitipol Phaddeewanich, a political scientist at Ubon Ratchathani University, believes this development is “a big bet for Thaksin”.

“There is a possibility for her (Paetongtarn) to fail and that is a big risk for the entire Shinawatra dynasty,” he said.

“If she can’t bring the economy back and bring the party back then it could be the end because the People’s Party is gaining more momentum after their dissolution.”