WILL IRAN RESPOND?
Yet, it will be the Iranian response that will be critical in deciding whether this remains a localised confrontation between Israel and Hezbollah or escalates into a regional war.
Iran promised retaliation following the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran last month, but has yet to carry out its threat. With the Gaza ceasefire negotiations in a deadlock and the humanitarian catastrophe rapidly worsening, Iran has few incentives to delay retaliatory action.
But Tehran does not have any good options left to execute its threatened response – either via proxies or on its own.
Among its once highly capable proxy forces, Palestinian militant group Hamas has been decimated after months of the war in Gaza. The threat of Yemen’s Houthi rebels remains mostly confined to shipping lanes in the Red Sea. And Israel’s pre-emptive strike on Hezbollah this morning is another demonstration of the limited utility of Iranian proxy warfare.
The Iranian strikes on Israel in April – of more than 300 drones and missiles but with ultimately little damage– demonstrated capability but not effect. Any similar attack this time is unlikely to deal a devastating blow to Israel and will almost certainly trigger an Israeli military response, and possibly an American one.
The question now is whether the combined Israeli and US military capabilities in the region will be a sufficient deterrent to Iran and its proxies, or whether their combined military might will merely serve as an assurance to Israel that the US will come to its defence in any further escalation.
If it is the former, we may yet avoid an all-out war in the Middle East. If it is the latter, further recklessness on all sides is likely to lead the region further into the abyss.
Stefan Wolff is Professor of International Security at the University of Birmingham and Head of the Department of Political Science and International Studies.
Source: CNA
