Loaded with global and domestic messages, China’s rare ICBM test in the Pacific risks stoking tensions

While China did not identify the ICBM tested on Wednesday, the latest iteration it is known to have is the Dongfeng-41 (DF-41), unveiled in 2019 during celebrations to mark the 70th anniversary of the PRC. With an estimated operational range of 12,000km to 15,000km, the DF-41 would be capable of reaching the US mainland.

Dr Newsham from the Japan Forum for Strategic Studies described testing an ICBM at this juncture as a “slap in the face” for the US, particularly given Washington’s repeated calls for reduced tensions over contentious issues like Taiwan and the South China Sea.

“In many ways, Beijing’s missile launch is reminiscent of North Korea’s provocations; it serves not just military testing purposes but also aims to create psychological deterrence and convey a powerful message,” he said. 

During Taiwanese President William Lai’s inauguration on May 20, Washington urged Beijing to “act with restraint and avoid using Taiwan’s transition as a pretext for provocative or coercive actions”.

China has frequently deployed aircraft and vessels past the median line of the Taiwan Strait, which once served as an unofficial barrier between the two sides. It’s accused the US of “interfering in its domestic affairs” following a series of US arms sales to the island.

On the South China Sea issue, the US, during a high-level military meeting this month, urged China to “reconsider its use of dangerous, coercive, and potentially escalatory tactics in the region and beyond”.

In response, Beijing has consistently asserted that it is merely defending its rights in the contested waters.

Some observers have noted that the timing could be calculated to give Beijing leverage ahead of a call between US President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping.

The White House said in late August that both leaders would speak “in the coming weeks”. This would be the leaders’ second phone call since their in-person meeting in California in November 2023.

“They are signalling that China has the capability to hit US territory with nuclear weapons,” Taiwanese PLA expert Lin Ying-yu told the Financial Times. “This show of force could be intended to give them more bargaining power in the upcoming call between Xi and Biden.”

Dr Loo from RSIS asserts that the latest launch reflects China’s intent to signal its advancing military prowess. 

“The timing of the test (is significant), as it serves not only as a demonstration of China’s strategic deterrence but also as a message to the global community that it is continuing to modernise its military capabilities,” he said.

President Xi Jinping has set several milestones for China’s armed forces to meet in the coming years and decades. By 2035, the military should have achieved modernisation – essentially bringing its prowess and capabilities up to speed with the technology of the day. By mid-century, it should be capable of fighting and winning wars.

The test comes barely a week before China marks the 75th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) on Oct 1. 

When asked if this could be a factor, Dr Loo said it was possible.

Beijing has been ramping up its nuclear development and hiking defence spending in recent years, with the Pentagon warning in October last year that the Chinese arsenal was expanding faster than it expected.

As of May 2023, China possessed more than 500 operational nuclear warheads and is projected to surpass 1,000 by 2030, according to a Pentagon report released last year.

That compares to 1,770 and 1,710 operational warheads deployed by the US and Russia respectively. The Pentagon has said that by 2030, much of Beijing’s weapons will likely be held at higher readiness levels.

Since carrying out its first nuclear detonation in 1964, Beijing has repeatedly committed to a “no first use” nuclear weapons policy. China and India are currently the only two nuclear powers to formally maintain this stance.