Indonesia’s new era: Incoming president Prabowo could make the military more powerful again, say analysts

Next year, the defence ministry will receive the biggest budget out of all ministries.

Even though its budget of 165.2 trillion rupiah is less than this year’s, this signals that the defence ministry will be a priority of the incoming government, said analysts.

They noted that the 3.6 per cent dip in the ministry’s budget this year compared to 2023 is due to Indonesia’s need to allocate monies to new agencies that will be set up next year, including one to oversee Mr Prabowo’s flagship free lunch programme.

Deputy defence minister Muhammad Herindra and senior defence ministry officials have said that the budget will be used to continue buying more hardware and ensure the welfare of soldiers.

On his part, Mr Prabowo announced last year that a military command would be established in each of Indonesia’s 38 provinces, an increase from the current 15. 

No new commands have been set up so far, and the incoming president did not indicate a timeline for the expansion.

While some may argue that this expansion is a sign of growing militarisation, Mr Khairul pointed out that this had been planned since the presidency of Mr Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, Mr Widodo’s predecessor.

The plan was for the country first to upgrade its ageing military hardware, improve the welfare of military personnel, and then add more military commands. 

Military commands serve as the regional headquarters of the army. By having a military command in a region, the army can develop and train its personnel according to the needs of a particular area.

“The priority for now is still to modernise equipment,” said Mr Khairul.

“And even if they add new military commands, they won’t be built simultaneously across Indonesia because of limited budget.”

Mr Khairul believes that provinces in Indonesia’s outermost regions or borders, such as Papua, would be given priority. 

A few years ago, Indonesia’s Papua island was expanded from two provinces into six, so it needs more resources. 

Papua Police spokesperson Senior Commissioner Ignatius Benny Adi Prabowo told CNA that the police also need additional resources such as more officers and a higher budget since some areas in Papua are prone to security issues such as insurgencies. 

Last month, a New Zealand pilot was finally freed after being held captive by separatist groups for 19 months in Nduga district.