Indonesia’s military is outdated. Is Prabowo the one to refresh it amid South China Sea tensions?

This trilateral construct is what Indonesian defence planners are “most worried about”, thinks Ridzwan, “because it’s opened up another front in this conflict between great powers in the Asia-Pacific region”.

Should a war break out between China and the US, he added, “some of the fighting, if not (the bulk) of the fighting, is going to happen within Indonesian waters because of how the positions of the hotspots are based”.

When Aukus was first announced in 2021, Indonesia was also concerned that it “might trigger an arms race in the region”, said Storey.

Some observers may think Indonesia’s own military build-up could be a cause, too, for such an arms race. “However, there are no signs among Indonesia’s current leaders that they’re adopting confrontational politics like in the past,” said Khairul.