Prabowo’s visits to China and US show need for more than ‘one-man show’ in driving Indonesia’s foreign policy: Analysts

DIPLOMACY NOT A “ONE-MAN SHOW”

While Mr Prabowo’s trips have raised Indonesia’s profile as well as his own on the global stage – his ongoing two-week tour will include the G20 Summit in Brazil and other stops – it is still unclear what Indonesia will manage to gain in the longer term, analysts said.

The implementation of joint statements with both big powers also remains to be seen, they said.

“What might be interesting for us is to wait for whether these joint statements will be implemented as they are according to the wording, or whether there will be changes again according to the clarification that has been made,” said Dr Shafiah, referring to the joint statement with China.

“We have to wait and see how it continues,” she said.

And while Mr Prabowo has signalled he will be more involved in Indonesia’s foreign policy, analysts say he would benefit from tapping the experience of his team more.

Between winning February’s election and his inauguration, Mr Prabowo made about 20 trips abroad in his capacity as defence minister and president-elect.

“Mr Prabowo seems to be a one-man show person when it comes to foreign politics,” observed Associate Professor Dinna Prapto Raharja, executive director of Jakarta-based think tank Synergy Policies, which focuses on political, social and economic sciences.

“It is okay if he wants to appear on the global stage, but he is a very ‘one-man show’ person. Everything depends on what he wants.” 

Besides the uproar over the inclusion of “overlapping claims” in the joint statement between Indonesia and China, other details have caught the eye of foreign policy watchers.

For instance, a line in the statement said: “Both sides emphasised that head-of-state diplomacy provides political safeguard and strategic guidance to the furtherance of China-Indonesia relations.

“Both sides will follow the important common understandings between the two heads of state, maintain close high-level exchanges, enhance strategic communication, deepen experience sharing in governance, and continue to enhance strategic and political mutual trust.”

This, Assoc Prof Dinna said, is unusual because foreign policy is not owned by a head of state and should instead represent a country and its people. 

“This is strange. There is no document from a head of state, especially after only visiting another country once, that makes a very serious statement and is undoubtedly considered binding by China. 

“The key (question) is, what does this mean to Xi Jinping?”

She also noted that the joint statement touched on a different bilateral pattern as it mentions cooperation programmes in detail, such as China’s Belt and Road Initiative. 

It goes on to state: “China commends Indonesia’s development priorities put forward by President Prabowo Subianto such as the free nutritious meal initiative, food sovereignty and resilience, energy self-sufficiency, and stands ready to support Indonesia to realise the above-mentioned visions.”

She believes such a take-and-give relationship between countries is not typically included in a joint statement.