South Korean prosecutors are racing to probe President Yoon Suk Yeol over his short-lived martial law decree, but the embattled leader is nowhere to be seen.
Yoon on Wednesday (Dec 18) skipped questioning by a joint investigation team consisting of the Defence Ministry, police and an anti-corruption investigative body, according to local media.
Investigators were also twice denied access to search his office for evidence.
Yoon has kept a low profile since his public remarks shortly after being impeached by parliament last Saturday. Authorities have not been able to contact or summon him since.
Analysts said Yoon, a career prosecutor and legal expert, wants to take his chances in court and undermine the legal basis for insurrection charges.
He is also stalling for time, as dragging out the process could serve him well in building a defence and in impeachment proceedings, they added.
“There’s legal strategy at play, and there’s political strategy as well. Yoon is trying to deflect … investigations for as long as possible,” said Jeremy Chan, a senior analyst at political risk consultancy Eurasia Group.
“He and his legal team … believe it was well within Yoon’s legal authority to declare martial law, and that the ongoing investigation … bringing these charges against a sitting president … are fundamentally illegitimate,” he told CNA’s Asia First.
Yoon has vowed to “fight to the end”. His lawyer told the media on Tuesday that the president is still assembling his defence team.
“Yoon is not regretful. He will be very hard to remove from his position,” said Han Gil-soo, a Monash University professor whose research focuses on Korea.
“He has prosecuted many high-ranking officials and past presidents. So, he knows how to overcome this process,” he added, referring to Yoon’s role in indicting former presidents Park Geun-hye and Lee Myung-bak when he was a chief prosecutor.
Yoon and some of his inner circle face possible life imprisonment, or even the death penalty, if found guilty.
DRAMA AT THE CONSTITUTIONAL COURT
As South Korea’s Constitutional Court began proceedings against Yoon this week, ruling and opposition lawmakers have clashed over justice appointments.
At least six of the nine-member court need to uphold the motion for the impeachment to succeed.
However, with three seats vacant, the decision needs to be unanimous to formally oust Yoon.
“If the court remains as six members – some of whom were appointed by Yoon himself, and if just one judge (votes) against, then the impeachment case will be rejected,” explained Yongwook Ryu, international politics assistant professor at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy.
The opposition Democratic Party (DP) – which commands a majority in the National Assembly – is trying to fill the bench by the end of this month.
It held the first meeting of a special parliamentary committee on Wednesday to discuss Constitutional Court nominees. The ruling People Power Party (PPP) skipped the meeting.
Han said filling the seats will leave less room for error for the opposition.
“With only six members, whatever decision (the court) makes, some may ask: ‘Was that actually constitutional?’ So, they are doing their best (to staff the court) so there are no questions asked later on,” he said.
But complications have arisen as that process requires the approval of the president.
While Yoon has been suspended from his duties as impeachment proceedings take place, he has not been officially booted from office.
There are opposing views over whether Prime Minister Han Duck-soo, who has stepped in as acting president, has the power to appoint constitutional judges.
The PPP said Han has no presidential powers but the opposition argued the appointment of the justices already nominated by the National Assembly is merely a formality, according to Yonhap.
LEE JAE-MYUNG’S LEGAL WOES
Observers said that like Yoon, it appears the PPP is similarly playing for time, as the clock is also ticking for the opposition’s leftwing firebrand leader Lee Jae-myung.
Multiple analysts CNA spoke to said Lee is now the presumptive frontrunner if Yoon is successfully removed and a snap election is called.
However, Lee was convicted of violating the election law last month.
Under the Supreme Court’s guidelines, if the ruling is upheld in the next six months, Lee will be barred from office for 10 years. He will be stripped of his National Assembly seat as well. This will effectively end the 61-year-old’s political career.
“The longer the impeachment process drags out, the greater the risk is for Lee to be disqualified. (In which case), we will see competition between two new political faces on both the left and the right,” said Chan.
Analysts said that if Lee is out of the picture, it will give the crisis-hit ruling party a better chance to remain relevant among voters.
Both Yoon and Lee have about six months before the respective courts decide on their fates.
“It’s a race to survive and time is on neither man’s side,” said Lee Sung Yoon, a global fellow at research institute Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, told CNA938.
CAN YOON SURVIVE IMPEACHMENT?
Analysts said while there is precedence, it is unlikely the Constitutional Court will overturn the lawmakers’ decision and restore Yoon as president.
This is the third time a South Korean president is facing impeachment.
In 2017, former president Park was ousted over a graft scandal after constitutional judges upheld the impeachment vote.
In 2004, late former President Roh Moo-hyun was impeached on charges of illegal electioneering, but the Constitutional Court reinstated him following two months of deliberation.
However, public sentiment towards Roh and Yoon are vastly different.
“Roh had the court of public opinion in his favour, and his approval rating went up during the impeachment process,” said Chan.
“Yoon is facing a very different battle. He’s politically radioactive. His support among his party, lawmakers, the people … has collapsed entirely.”
Yoon’s approval rating has hit a record low of 11 per cent following his martial law debacle, with thousands of protesters marching on the capital.
Still, compared to Park, Yoon’s public ratings are higher, and he has more support from his own party – more than half the lawmakers in Park’s party abandoned her.
In the event Yoon survives the motion with enough justices voting in his favour, he will be reinstated in office to serve out the rest of his five-year term.
However, many – both among the public and in parliament – will consider the move to be against the people’s wishes, said experts. The opposition will likely begin yet another impeachment process.
“The political and legal consequences of Yoon’s martial law declaration are simply too large. I don’t think anyone in the legal field would be able to defend it completely for Yoon,” said Hong Ji Yeon, a Korean studies professor at the University of Michigan.
“Given Yoon’s defiant attitude, it’s unlikely that this limbo will be resolved within a few months. We will see more turbulence in the National Assembly and in South Korea politics for a while.”
Source: CNA
