IN FOCUS: Bersatu rift, dire Sabah election – what’s next for opposition pact PN as it eyes next GE?

Hamzah previously held various ministerial posts, including as Minister of Home Affairs and Minister of Domestic Trade, Cooperatives and Consumerism.

Syaza of IIUM believes Hamzah’s faction lacks sufficient support, which is why he has been unable to unseat Muhyiddin as Bersatu president.

If Bersatu ultimately affirms its decision on Muhyiddin and internal protests subside, PAS would be ready to work with Bersatu under Muhyiddin and focus on the elections, she said.

“PAS supporters are known to follow their leaders, so it’s not difficult to bring them around to a decision,” she said.

WHY PAS NEEDS BERSATU

While some grassroots members have suggested that PAS should go solo, Syaza said the party needs Bersatu at the strategic level to expand its acceptability outside of its core electorate. 

The alliance is crucial, even given the perception that Bersatu has benefited more by riding PAS’ momentum, she said.

“Yes, (PAS) holds more seats but it is still not enough (to form) a government on their own. And if they come out aggressively saying they have more seats and thus deserve the leadership of PN, that might scare those wary of a PAS-led rule. I do think PAS believes they can get there one day, but not now,” said Syaza.

Zaharuddin agreed that PAS risks isolation if it decides to go alone. 

“While they can maximise their Malay heartland seats with a clearer ideological identity, the ceiling is low in mixed and urban seats,” he said.

“PAS gains more by dominating PN from within than by leaving. An exit only makes sense if a new cross-ethnic alliance or post-election deal offers clear upside,” he said. 

PAS was previously part of Anwar’s Pakatan Rakyat pact that was formed in 2008, along with DAP. But the coalition broke up in June 2015 due to irreconcilable differences, primarily between PAS and the Chinese-dominated DAP regarding the implementation of Syariah law (hudud).

Aside from PN’s internal problems, analysts believe its perennial problem is to win over non-Malay and urban voters, especially as it relies heavily on ethno-religious narratives for support from the Malay heartland.

Syaza said PN’s major weakness is its failure to gain significant ground in non-Malay or mixed constituencies, which she believes must be its primary focus.

She believes that smaller coalition partners like Gerakan, or even the Malaysian Indian Congress (MIC) which is reportedly poised to join PN, are simply not strong enough to pose a credible challenge to PH.

MIC had passed a resolution to exit BN last month, saying that the partnership no longer provides space for the party to contribute meaningfully to national development. 

“The only thing in their (PN’s) favour, I think, is if PH continues to lose support and its so-called base will just not turn up to vote,” she said. 

Zaharuddin said that while PN seems to be adding allies tactically, it still has not cracked the code of winning racially-mixed constituencies. 

“This expansion looks opportunistic rather than visionary. PN’s real challenge is convincing non-Malays and moderates it can govern fairly. Without that, PN risks winning numbers but losing mandate,” he said.