As we start 2025, much of the world is facing significant uncertainty regarding the months and years ahead. North America is no exception, with President Sheinbaum just starting her six-year term, U.S. President-elect Trump about to start a second four-year term, and Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau perhaps nearing the end of almost 10 years in office. Mexico, as MND covers each and every day, has a lot on its plate this new year. With that introduction, and knowing that it will likely be a year that will not look kindly on forecasters, I will share 12 of my predictions for Mexico in 2025.
1. President Sheinbaum will remain extremely popular with the Mexican population. Recent polling showed her having an exceptionally high 76% favorability rating in Mexico. I think that in 2025, despite a lot of uncertainty and turmoil, she will retain a favorability rating above 70%.
2. President Sheinbaum and President Trump will get along better than expected. Despite Trump’s highly confrontational style, President Sheinbaum will successfully manage the relationship and they will have a productive and positive working relationship that will surprise many people.
3. The Mexican peso will weaken to above 21 to the US dollar, and I would not be surprised to see it go above 22 by the end of the year. There will be a lot of uncertainty throughout the year, and uncertainty tends to strengthen the US dollar and weaken the Mexican peso. USMCA negotiations, foreign direct investment delays, slowing GDP growth in Mexico, and a difference in interest rate reductions between the U.S. and Mexico will likely all contribute to peso weakness.
4. There will be many delays of new foreign direct investment (FDI) into Mexico in 2025, resulting in disappointing FDI numbers for the year. But then I think that there will be an acceleration of FDI in 2026 and beyond. Until there is more clarity around tariff policies and USMCA renewal terms, many companies will hold off on making significant FDI moves in Mexico this year.
5. Mexican GDP growth will surprise to the upside, but still be disappointingly low. Many experts are predicting 2025 GDP growth in the 1.1%-1.2% range, which would be below the U.S. rate and far below what Mexico should expect given the nearshoring opportunity. I think a number closer to 2% might be the reality for the year: better than expected but still way too low.
6. Mexico will need to bring its interest rates down more quickly than the United States. The U.S. will likely have the luxury of being able to pause its interest rate reductions for now and cut less in 2025. Mexico likely will not have that ability due to a sluggish economy, declining FDI rates and slowing inflation. The result could be an even faster depreciation of the Mexican peso than predicted above.
7. Mexico will surprise the world by taking some substantive actions against the drug cartels. A reduction in violence unfortunately would be difficult to predict, but I think that 2025 will be a year in which the Mexican government visibly goes on the offensive again against the cartels after six years of a “hugs not bullets” strategy (that arguably failed) by former President López Obrador.
8. Mexico will take an increasingly strong stand against Chinese investments in the country. Look for more tariffs (in coordination with the U.S. and Canada), more actions on Chinese counterfeit goods in the country, and more actions against Chinese nationals. The tidal wave of Chinese cars and car dealerships will slow down significantly, at least for now. It’s in Mexico’s best interest to do this, and would also lead to a more productive USMCA discussion.
9. Pemex will likely go mostly untouched in 2025, but some high profile green energy investment projects will be announced. With so many other pressing issues to attend to this year, I doubt President Sheinbaum will have the bandwidth to try to tackle Pemex, but I do expect much more momentum around green energy projects and investments.
10. Less cynicism and more optimism will take hold on Mexico’s all-in focus on trains. Both the Maya Train and Interoceanic Train will demonstrate their value, and excitement will build around the newly planned and soon-to-be-constructed routes in the center of the country heading north.
11. Mexico City will continue to get the recognition and visibility it deserves for being one of the great cities of the world. The city, which had very few tourists in the past, is now booming with tourism. Expect to hear more people than ever saying “I had no idea CDMX was such a great city … who would have ever thought?” (Cue the eye rolling.)
12. Tourist numbers will continue to hit new records throughout the country. A weakening peso, a strong U.S. economy, the booming cruise industry and lots of new flights will keep tourists coming in record numbers again in 2025. More people are increasingly discovering great new places to vacation in Mexico.
2025 most certainly will be a fascinating year with a constant flow of news. Mexico News Daily will be there to cover it all for you. Stay tuned and buckle up!
Which of my predictions do you agree with? What do you think I missed or got wrong? Please share your thoughts and predictions in the comments.
Travis Bembenek is the CEO of Mexico News Daily and has been living, working or playing in Mexico for nearly 30 years.
Source: Mexico News Daily
