President Trump won in part on a platform in which he promised to take decisive action against drug traffickers, drug cartels and those nations harboring them. Let’s set aside any cynicism on the “real motives” of the Venezuela attack (yes oil, I mean you) and assume that a key objective was to take action on the production and distribution of drugs from Venezuela to the United States and other countries around the world.
What began as a small drug boat getting blown up on Sept. 1 off the Caribbean coast of Venezuela had quickly turned into a steady flow of attacks in both the Caribbean and Pacific. The most recent account is that there have been 36 vessels attacked, with at least 115 people killed. In addition to the boat attacks, there has of course been the U.S. military buildup in the area around Venezuela. Never in recent history have so many U.S. soldiers and military assets been stationed in the region.
Throughout this period, the rhetoric on Mexico has been relatively consistent. President Sheinbaum has continued to emphasize the sovereignty of Mexico and insist that U.S. troops are not acceptable in the country. She recently even went so far as to say that, “The last time the United States came to Mexico with an intervention, they took half of the territory.” President Trump has been consistent in his rhetoric towards Mexico, on more than one occasion insisting that “Mexico is run by the cartels,” while at the same time praising the Sheinbaum administration for the collaboration with the U.S. against the cartels.
Sheinbaum in fact has taken some significant actions against the cartels, and has demonstrated a step change in action compared to her predecessor. AMLO’s “hugs, not bullets” strategy against the cartels clearly was ineffective and insincere. No one can forget AMLO briefly meeting Chapo’s mother in Sinaloa.
But today, everything changed. Sheinbaum’s immediate reaction to the Venezuelan attack was to issue a statement “condemning the military intervention in Venezuela” and citing Article 2, paragraph 4 of the United Nations Charter that reads: “All Members shall refrain in their international relations from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of any state, or in any other manner inconsistent with the Purposes of the United Nations.” That is a logical and valid reaction, especially given her consistent references to Mexico’s sovereignty.
That being said, the United Nations stood by and did little over the past several decades as first Chávez and then Maduro ruled Venezuela with an iron fist. Corruption was rampant, elections were rigged, and millions of Venezuelans were forced to flee the country in search of a better life. The United Nations and most nations of the world stood silent as millions of Venezuelans were forced to walk through the Darien Gap, as countless stories were told of many of them being robbed, raped or killed in the journey. The millions that ultimately made it to the U.S. border were treated as asylum seekers and welcomed into the country. This led to many communities across the nation having their schools, hospitals, and support organizations overwhelmed as they attempted to support the massive wave of new immigrants into the country. This of course was another key theme of the recent U.S. elections.
El Artículo 2, párrafo 4 de la Carta de las Naciones Unidas dice textualmente:
“Los Miembros de la Organización, en sus relaciones internacionales, se abstendrán de recurrir a la amenaza o al uso de la fuerza contra la integridad territorial o la independencia política de…
— Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo (@Claudiashein) January 3, 2026
So the Trump administration finally took action. And in taking action, also said that Mexico, along with Cuba and Colombia could be next. He also once again reiterated to Fox News that Mexico is run by the drug cartels and added that, “Something’s going to have to be done with Mexico.” Is this a threat that should be taken seriously? And if so, what should Mexico do?
Here is my personal take. Not only President Trump, but also Secretary Rubio, U.S. Ambassador to Mexico Ron Johnson and even Secretary Noem have recently commented on the cooperation and collaboration of the Sheinbaum administration in the war on drugs. Clearly this is a completely different tone than what was being said about Venezuela, Cuba and Colombia. The Trump administration has ratcheted up the pressure on Mexico to take action on the cartels, and Mexico has many examples of improved action and results.
I believe that today’s Venezuelan actions will serve as an even larger “stick” to get Mexico to do more, much faster. I also believe that Trump will also use the “carrot” of the upcoming USMCA trade agreement renewal to exert even more pressure on Mexico to quickly produce results. It cannot be forgotten that the U.S. is Mexico’s largest customer, and Mexico is the U.S.’s largest customer. That means alot and obviously isn’t the case with Venezuela, Cuba and Colombia.
What do these results ultimately look like? Look for more cartel leader arrests, more drug seizures, more collaboration on the flow of money, weapons and drugs. And look for the use of drone strikes on Mexican fentanyl labs. This was my “wildcard” prediction for Mexico for 2026 that I think just became a lot more likely today. The drone strikes might be ultimately conducted by Mexico (with behind the scenes support from the U.S. military), but I do believe that they will begin happening sooner rather than later.
I believe that these actions by Mexico will happen, and as a result will prevent any direct U.S. actions or intervention in Mexico. The real question to begin to think about, both in Venezuela and if increased actions take place in Mexico, is what will happen next. In other words, what will the cartels do next? Where will they go? How will they respond? History teaches us that it is not the success of the attack, but rather the lack of a plan after the attack, that often ultimately determines future success. Let’s hope that the U.S. has a comprehensive, well-thought-out plan to address that.
Travis Bembenek is the CEO of Mexico News Daily and has been living, working or playing in Mexico for nearly 30 years.
Source: Mexico News Daily
