REDUCED SUPPORT FOR UKRAINE?
The coalition partners, in government since 2021, were at odds even before the elections, as tensions had erupted late last year over the Budget for this year and next year.
Their union was originally billed as a coalition of progress, but Greens co-leader Omid Nouripour last month called it a “transitional government”, bemoaning the “many, many superfluous disputes” as well as fundamental ideological differences in particular with the FDP.
FDP deputy leader Wolfgang Kubicki said on Sunday that the election results showed the coalition had “lost its legitimacy” and was harming his party, which must have consequences.
“With the 2025 Budget bill still featuring a gap of some €12 billion (US$13.25 billion), renewed coalition tensions are likely,” said Carsten Nickel at Teneo in a research note.
Yet Scholz’s coalition is unlikely to disband altogether as it is not in the interests of the three parties, which are all polling below their 2021 results, said Stefan Marschall, a political scientist at the University of Duesseldorf.
Both the BSW and AfD have eroded their support, which has led mainstream parties to toughen their stance on migration and could undermine support for Ukraine.
“The issue will become more fraught, and Germany will likely become more paralysed, meaning others like Poland, France and Italy will need to set the pace,” said Alexander Clarkson at King’s College London.
The creation of the BSW and its legitimisation in this vote could prove particularly damaging for the SPD, which has already lost more than a third of its supporters since 2021 to poll around 16 per cent, and could see more left-leaning voters drawn away.
Source: CNA
