Analysis: Indonesia set to see first 3-way presidential race since 2009 that risks splitting society

WHAT MATTERS MORE IN A THREE-HORSE RACE?

Mdm Titi Anggraini, an election law lecturer at the University of Indonesia, concurred that having options is good. 

Since there will be several national debates in which the candidates must participate, how well a pair performs and can sell their ideas will be crucial to win over voters, said Mdm Anggraini.

“With two pairs, debates usually matter, but if there are three, debates will be more crucial. 

“Currently, no pair is dominant, and there are still undecided voters or swing voters who will watch the debates to make a decision,” she added. 

According to various polls, there are about 20 to 30 per cent of undecided voters.

Mdm Anggraini and Mr Mas’udi from the University of Gadjah Mada both said they believe a three-horse race has intensified the fight to win the votes in Java, where more than half of the country’s population resides.

“As long as a pair secures the majority of Java – it is already half of the total voters in Indonesia,” said Mdm Anggraini.

The government said a second round would require a bigger budget to hold the elections. 

When asked by reporters in mid-September whether there is a budget to hold two rounds of elections, President  Widodo said: “Ask the finance minister. It will definitely be prepared.”

But Mdm Anggraini said it is highly unlikely that a pair can win in just one round this time, given nobody is an incumbent and the candidates’ current popularity ratings linger between 20 to 36 per cent. 

Therefore, she added that religious leaders will be more exploited since they have huge followers, and it is harder to win with three pairs.

Historically, in Indonesia, religious leaders are influential people. 

They head religious groups with huge followers such as Nahdlatul Ulama, the biggest Islamic organisation in Indonesia and the world and Muhammadiyah, the second biggest Islamic organisation in Indonesia.

They are believed to be able to influence their followers on who they should choose.  

If there are three candidates, more people will want to gain the support of these leaders. The candidates will try their best to win them over, said Mdm Anggraini. 

Although the election law prohibits places of worship from being used for campaigning, there are grey areas in which the General Election Supervisory Agency (BAWASLU) will have difficulties determining violations, said analysts.

“Because, for example, there is no prohibition in visiting Islamic boarding schools, and we all know authorities don’t have much access to them,” said Mdm Anggraini.

Boarding schools are where many religious leaders spend their time. They are respected by students who will most likely be first-time voters. 

Whatever the leaders say, the students will most likely follow. 

Hence if a religious leader endorses a particular candidate, the students could choose the same person, said Mdm Anggraini.

Political identity will also be used as much as possible to gain votes.  

“The nationalists will portray themselves as religious people while the Islamists will highlight their nationalism without leaving their Islamic identity,” she added.

Consequently, it is highly possible that society will become more polarised than in previous elections in 2019, where Islam was used as a campaigning tool even though both Mr Widodo and Mr Subianto are Muslims.

It is easier to prevent polarisation if there is only one round, Mdm Anggraini stated. 

With two rounds, the pair coming in third will consolidate with another pair for the second round, and everyone will create various controversial issues to win. 

“So three pairs is good, as long as it ends in one round.”