Snap Insight: Arrest of former Philippine president Duterte will be dogged by suspicions of political persecution

POISED TO REPEAT TRAGIC HISTORY

Duterte’s political allies and supporters are now crying foul and accusing the state of grave abuse of its power.

The irony is that it is this same allegation that inspired the bloody war on drugs as it bypassed due process, undermined civil liberties and eroded the rule of law in the Philippines. When it takes an international court to push the cause of criminal accountability and human rights, it is a damning verdict of the integrity and quality of democracy.

This latest episode in the Marcos-Duterte war has added more evidence that the upcoming midterm elections in May will be defined by a polarisation between these two political clans.

It remains to be seen whether Duterte’s arrest will result in incarceration. He had registered to run for mayor of their family’s stronghold Davao City.

The last time a popular ex-president was detained was in 2001, when Joseph Estrada’s arrest led to a massive political protest that almost deposed the incumbent government. In this “game of thrones” in Southeast Asia’s oldest democracy, warring houses have often resulted in political instability, economic ruin and democratic backsliding.

Unless elites remain restrained and institutions are allowed to work, the Philippines is poised to repeat its tragic history all over again.

Dr Aries A Arugay is a Visiting Senior Fellow and Coordinator of the Philippine Studies Programme at ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute. He is also Professor and Chair of the Department of Political Science, University of the Philippines-Diliman.