Ding at the South China Sea studies institute, in China’s southern Hainan province, warned of the impact on bilateral ties.
“Over the past years, the two sides have managed to control their differences well, so there is an unspoken agreement on how to deal with the disputes at sea,” he said. “But now, such agreements have been broken.”
Ding said the face-off could damage bilateral trust and affect the ongoing and long-awaited code of conduct talks.
“There would be less frankness in the negotiations.”
The South China Sea is a busy trade route crucial to countries in Southeast and East Asia, and an escalation there would raise the risks of drawing in the United States, a treaty ally of the Philippines for more than 70 years.
Under their 1951 Mutual Defence Treaty, the US is obliged to defend the Philippines if its forces, ships and aircraft come under armed attack, including “those of its coastguard – anywhere in the South China Sea”.
The commitment was reaffirmed in a statement released by the US State Department after the collisions on Sunday.
The same day, the US also conducted its first-ever trilateral aerial exercise with Japan and South Korea, in response to evolving North Korean nuclear threats.
However, “it remains to be seen how much the US would like to see a conflict between China and the Philippines go out of control”, Ding said.
According to Philippine officials, about five Chinese coastguard ships, eight accompanying vessels and two navy ships formed a blockade on Sunday to prevent two Philippine coastguard ships and two boats from delivering food and other supplies to forces stationed at Second Thomas Shoal.
Source: CNA
