HONG KONG: When China sailed one of its two active aircraft carriers, the Shandong, east of Taiwan last month as part of military drills surrounding the island, it was showcasing a capability that it has yet to master and could take years to perfect.
As Beijing modernises its military, its formidable missile forces and other naval vessels, such as cutting-edge cruisers, are posing a concern for the US and its allies. But it could be more than a decade before China can mount a credible carrier threat far from its shores, according to four military attaches and six defence analysts familiar with regional naval deployments.
Instead, China’s carriers are more of a propaganda showpiece, with doubts about their value in a possible conflict with the US over Taiwan and about whether China could protect them on longer-range missions into the Pacific and Indian oceans, the attaches and analysts told Reuters.
China’s Defence Ministry did not respond to questions about its carrier program, though dozens of articles in state-linked journals reviewed by Reuters reveal awareness among Chinese military analysts about shortcomings in the country’s carrier capability.
While some regional press coverage, partially based on Chinese state media reports, portrayed recent drills around Taiwan as active patrols and a military challenge to the US and its allies, the Chinese carriers are effectively still in training mode, eight of the experts said.
Landing of aircraft at night and in bad weather, for instance – crucial to regular offshore carrier operations – remain far from routine, several of the attaches and analysts said.
And in a conflict, China’s carriers would be vulnerable to missile and submarine attacks, some of the experts said, noting the People’s Liberation Army Navy has not perfected protective screening operations, particularly anti-submarine warfare.
“Unlike other parts of their military modernisation, there is something politically theatrical about their carrier deployments so far,” said Trevor Hollingsbee, a former British naval intelligence analyst.
“Carrier operations are a very complicated game, and China’s got to figure this out all by itself. It still has a long, long way to go.”
At times, China’s carrier pilots have relied on land-based airfields for takeoffs or landings, as well as for extra air cover and surveillance, the attaches told Reuters on the condition of anonymity as they were not authorised to speak publicly.
And though China’s Liaoning and Shandong carriers have each sailed into the western Pacific in recent months, approaching US bases on Guam, they remained within the range of coastal Chinese airfields, according to Rira Momma, professor of security studies at Takushoku University’s Institute of World Studies, who reviewed Japanese defence ministry tracking data.
Both the Liaoning – a refitted ex-Soviet vessel – and the Chinese-built Shandong have jump ramps for take-offs, which limit the number and range of aircraft on board.
Anti-submarine helicopters operate from both carriers and China’s Type 055 cruisers but the carriers have yet to deploy an early warning aircraft, relying so far on land-based planes, the 10 experts said.
A new plane, the KJ-600, designed to perform a similar role to the E-2C/D Hawkeye launched from US carriers, is still in testing, according to the Pentagon’s latest annual report on China’s military.
Source: CNA
