Trump’s transactional approach to diplomacy and his “America First” policy have raised doubts about the consistency and reliability of US support for the island. For instance, Trump has suggested Taiwan should pay for US protection.
Against this backdrop, the Taiwanese government has shifted to fostering self-reliance and strengthening social cohesion as part of its defence strategy, Reyes pointed out.
“There is a growing consensus within Taiwan that the island should not rely too heavily on the US for protection,” he said. “Many on the island appear to view a more hands-off approach by the US as something that could be positively received.”
Such a scenario could lead to a de-escalation of the Taiwan issue on the international stage, prompting Beijing to adopt a more structured approach to advancing its relations with Taiwan, said Reyes.
However, Wu from LKYSPP is less optimistic about the prospects of a breakthrough in cross-strait relations, especially with President William Lai Ching-te of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) leading Taiwan.
Beijing has repeatedly denounced Lai and even gone as far as calling him an “obstinate separatist”, Wu highlighted. “We have seen no progress in cross-strait relations, even at the people-to-people level. If anything, the situation may worsen rather than improve.”
The DPP has led Taiwan since 2016. China has since enacted travel and trade restrictions, poached Taipei’s already limited number of diplomatic allies and stepped up military activity around the island.
In his New Year’s speech on Dec 31, Xi said no one can stop reunification with Taiwan. “The people on both sides of the Taiwan Strait are one family. No one can sever our family bonds, and no one can stop the historical trend of national reunification,” he said.
Wu pointed to an unannounced yet major exercise by Chinese naval forces near Taiwan on Dec 10, which Taiwanese authorities described as “the largest in decades” and “a significant threat”.
“The fact that the exercise was unannounced suggests that China may now prefer to keep its intentions regarding Taiwan under wraps,” he said.
“This lack of transparency is concerning, as it leaves the international community uncertain about Beijing’s actions, which could lead to miscalculations in the worst-case scenario.”
INTERNAL POLITICS
On the domestic front, observers expect Xi to further consolidate power in the year ahead.
“I don’t foresee Xi relenting or easing his control as he approaches the midterm point of his third term as China’s top leader,” said Reyes from HKU. Xi secured an unprecedented third term in March 2023.
Source: CNA
