All parties surely know the likely destructive consequences of such an eventuality for themselves: Israel has the military power to devastate Beirut and other parts of Lebanon as it did in Gaza, while even a weakened Hezbollah could fire thousands of missiles at Israeli strategic sites, from the airport to central Tel Aviv, water supply lines and electricity hubs, and offshore gas rigs.
So instead, they have exchanged fire and blows along their shared boundary, with somewhat agreed-upon red lines concerning the geographical scope of attacks and efforts not to intentionally target civilians.
But the recent attacks in Lebanon may have turned the page of this war of attrition into a new and far more acute situation, putting the region on the brink of a full war. Such a war would wreak havoc in Lebanon and Israel, and might also drag Iran and the United States into direct confrontation.
In doing so, it would also fulfill the apparent goal of the Hamas gunmen who killed around 1,200 Israelis on Oct 7 in the hope that a heavy-handed Israeli response would draw in more groups across the region.
A DANGEROUS “NEW PHASE”
Hezbollah’s secretary general, Hassan Nasrallah, has insisted throughout the near-year-long hostilities that his organisation would hold its fire only if a ceasefire agreement is reached between Israel and Hamas. In recent weeks, however, Israel has taken the conflict in the opposite direction.
The country’s defence minister, Yoav Gallant, described a “new phase” in the war after the coordinated attacks on Hezbollah targets, adding that the “centre of gravity” in the war was moving north into Lebanon. The Israeli government has added the “return of the residents of the north securely to their homes” as an additional war goal.
Source: CNA
