THE CHINA TRAJECTORY REMAINS THE SAME (MOSTLY)
On China, Ms Harris will undoubtedly continue the Biden administration’s approach of “invest, align, compete” – invest in the US, align with partners and allies and compete against China to defend America’s core interests.
Former US Ambassador to APEC and former US Consul General to Hong Kong Kurt Tong noted that Ms Harris likely will follow Mr Biden’s lead on economic relations with China, focusing on technology denial for strategic reasons, and occasionally using tariffs to protect key industries threatened by China’s overcapacity.
“She may be tougher than Biden on human rights, and more interested in linking climate policy to trade. The biggest difference with Trump would be on more traditional trade protectionisms, where Trump promises to raise tariffs sharply and comprehensively on Chinese products in a quixotic effort to level out US exports and imports, but Harris is likely to fear that would lead to inflation,” Mr Tong told me.
In some ways, US economic policy towards Asia will not veer greatly from Ms Harris or Trump.
Whoever wins, the US will not be returning to the world of free trade.
The Democrat’s platform reads, “For too long, America’s trade policies and approach to the global economy let middle-class jobs move offshore, hollowed out our supply chains, rewarded corporate CEOs instead of valuing workers, and failed to generate inclusive economic growth”, thereby calling for “a fairer, more durable global economic order, for the benefit of the American people and for people everywhere”.
The Republican platform goes further, promising to “rebalance” trade through tariffs as well as calling for the revocation of China’s permanent normal trade relations status with the US.
“Regardless of whether it’s Harris or Trump, paradoxically, the US will continue to walk away from trade while the rest of Asia embraces it,” Mr Kishore Mahbubani, former Singapore diplomat and former president of the United Nations Security Council, told me.
“Governments in the region led by the CIA – China, India and ASEAN – will continue their regional integration while the US sits on the sidelines under either Harris or Trump,” he added.
Source: CNA
