Commentary: Facing enormous pressure at home and abroad, how much longer can Israel continue its war in Gaza?

SO, IS HAMAS THEN “WINNING”?

Unlike the Netanyahu government, the Hamas leadership has not publicly set a standard by which it might measure victory. However, it’s obvious: The war is a zero-sum game. If Hamas survives, Israel loses.

That’s a much lower bar, and Hamas seems to believe it has the momentum. Since the temporary truce in November, Hamas has hardened its demands for a new hostage-prisoner exchange deal to include a complete Israeli withdrawal from Gaza and permanent ceasefire.

Hamas is well aware that Israel has lost considerable international support over the course of the war – particularly with the Biden administration in the US, but also with its other traditional sympathisers in the West. The IDF’s targeted, if mistaken, killing of seven aid workers with the charity World Central Kitchen last week has only added to this international anger.

Following the aid worker killings, Biden had a diplomatically “direct” (read, angry) phone call with Netanyahu, during which he called the overall humanitarian situation in Gaza “unacceptable”. He also demanded Israel implement specific and concrete measures to address civilian harm and the safety of all aid workers.

Biden then made a scarcely veiled threat to reassess US “policy with respect to Gaza” if Netanyahu failed to take immediate action.

Netanyahu has become accustomed to facing down US presidents over his years in power, but Biden’s message certainly got through to him. He hurriedly convened a Cabinet meeting to approve the opening of three aid pathways into Gaza.

But did this really mark a turning point for US support for Israel? The US has already reduced its diplomatic support for Israel, having abstained on a ceasefire resolution in the UN Security Council last month, which allowed it to pass.

A far more serious step would be to reduce or place conditions on US weapons sales to Israel. However, such a move is not likely at this stage. It would run counter to the long-held bipartisan US policy towards Israel, which virtually since the creation of the Jewish state has been to ensure its survival in a region where it is surrounded by enemies.

US restrictions on military aid are even more unlikely in Israel’s current security environment, facing threats not only from Hamas, but also Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthi rebels in Yemen and Iranian-backed militants in Iraq and Syria. Iran has also made threats against Israel following an apparent Israeli strike against the Iranian consulate in Damascus last week.