Commentary: Howdy Modi and Namaste Trump were high points. It’s been downhill for US-India ties since

HARDENING POSITIONS ON BOTH SIDES

Certainly, the US-India relationship has historically not been entirely rosy, even though there is some fundamental ideological convergence; India and the US are both liberal democracies in recent years trending towards the illiberal.

The US security establishment has long danced with Pakistan, in part to try to balance China’s influence in that country. This has historically rankled India. 

Additionally, Mr Trump sees the growing BRICS group as a threat especially to the hegemony of the US dollar. He also seems fixated on cementing a legacy with the Nobel Peace Prize; for good or bad, it is not possible to separate the personal from the political in the case of Mr Trump. 

The India-Pakistan episode, with New Delhi cold to his ceasefire claims, may have left a sour taste for him as well. 

Meanwhile, domestic politics are hardening positions on both sides. Mr Trump was voted to power for a second time by a base that wants to revert to what it widely sees as core American values – white, conservative, patriarchal, Christian – and the country remains bitterly divided. Mr Modi’s base largely sees its core value as a conservative and inherently strongly patriarchal Hindu identity.

But the US-India relationship is also much more broad-based than it was during the Cold War. Shared concerns about an assertive China have helped nudge them closer. 

The US-India Civil Nuclear Agreement of 2008 was a significant turning point. The four-member Quad brings together Japan, Australia, and the US with India in a loose arrangement. The annual joint naval exercise Malabar hosted by India includes US, Japanese, Indian and Australian naval forces. 

Mr Trump’s unpredictability has begun to revive doubts. Old contentious issues – Pakistan, trade and Indian protectionist tariffs with one eye on its vulnerable farmers, and of course Russia – are back on the table, wrapped in the heightened rhetoric of nationalism. 

In this new environment, some storms even if they pass can be imprinted in public memory. 

In India in particular, doubt and distrust of the US will linger in the public mind even when Mr Trump is no longer in office. That means the US, while valued as a hedge against China, may go back to being at arm’s length, at least publicly, even as strategic security and military cooperation will quietly continue.