WALKING INTO A TRAP OF ESCALATION
Israel has just launched a second front in its war with its regional enemies, with a ground incursion into Lebanon that follows up on the devastating blows it has already landed on Hezbollah, the Iran-backed militant force.
The government of Benjamin Netanyahu clearly feels that it has its enemies on the run. It may want to hit back hard at Iran, hoping to do lasting damage to the Islamic republic and perhaps to its feared nuclear programme.
The Iranians will certainly have understood the risks of Israeli counter-escalation, and some in Tehran may fear that they are walking into a trap by once again firing missiles at Israel. But failing to respond to Israel’s attacks on Hezbollah – which follow the assassination in July of Ismail Haniyeh, the leader of Hamas, in Tehran – will also have seemed like a serious risk for Iran.
The grim logic of war and deterrence suggests that a power that is unable to defend its friends, or to respond to attacks in its capital, looks weak. And weakness potentially invites further attacks, while also leading to a loss of influence and prestige.
Behind its tough talk, the White House may still be urging Israel to calibrate its response and to not hit back so hard that Iran feels compelled to up the ante again. After pulling out of Afghanistan, the Biden administration has no desire to be dragged into another conflict in the Middle East.
Source: CNA
