FUMIO KISHIDA’S MIXED LEGACY
Whoever succeeds him, Kishida will leave a mixed legacy of both accomplishments and baggage.
His record on defence and foreign policy speaks for itself; it’s no coincidence that US Ambassador Rahm Emanuel, Japan’s biggest cheerleader, was among the first to issue praise. He hailed the “new era of relations” ushered in over the past three years, and has spoken of how the prime minister could do what his predecessor Abe could not: Double defence spending, relax defence export rules, and restore ties with South Korea, all without sparking mass protests.
With China doves within the LDP a dying breed these days, any successor seems unlikely to rock the boat too much here – though the likes of Sanae Takaichi, currently economic security minister, might move things further right.
But it’s at home where things need most attention.
Kishida’s “New Capitalism” economic policy was a busted flush, spooking markets and earning him the derisive (and undeserved) nickname of “Tax-Hike Four Eyes.” His replacement will need a better focus on the domestic economy.
And he leaves with his promise of salary hikes above inflation only beginning to have impact, with real wages finally rising in June for the first time in 27 months. He should have taken a victory lap on defeating deflation; instead, the public still frets about inflation and the weak yen.
His replacement will have to deal with any further market ructions caused by the rate hikes of Kishida’s pick to lead the Bank of Japan, Kazuo Ueda.
With over a month to go, it’s entirely possible that rather than air dirty laundry in public, the party will coalesce around a mainstream candidate: Foreign Minister Yoko Kamikawa, perhaps, or policy heavyweight Toshimitsu Motegi.
But potential challengers should take a tip from Kishida, known to be a voracious reader. One of the prime minister’s favourite books is reportedly Crime And Punishment. Dostoyevsky writes that “power is only vouchsafed to the man who dares to stoop and pick it up … one has only to dare”.
Source: CNA
