Asia

Commentary: Navigating China’s influence and expanding role in Southeast Asia

This sentiment is further echoed in a new question assessing dialogue partners’ strategic relevance to ASEAN. China has been affirmed as the most strategically significant partner with a mean score of 8.98 out of 11, slightly ahead of the US at 8.79.  Most countries in Southeast Asia except Myanmar, the Philippines and Vietnam, ranked China as their top choice.

Moreover, it comes as no surprise that China continues to hold its position as the pre-eminent economic and political-strategic power in the region, with 59.9 per cent and 43.9 per cent of respondents affirming its influence in these respective spheres.

OPTIMISM ABOUT CHINA’S ECONOMIC COMMITMENT TO REGION

Despite concerns about China’s potentially diminishing economic outlook, the region remains optimistic about China’s economic commitment to Southeast Asia. This sentiment is particularly pronounced in Laos, Thailand, Malaysia and Brunei, where China’s status as the largest or second-largest foreign investor underscores its significant economic footprint. 

The survey results align closely with the findings of the Lowy Institute’s Asia Power Index, which highlights China’s salient influence in areas such as economic relationships, diplomacy and people-to-people exchanges. The index also highlights a notable decline in the overall US influence, particularly in countries such as Malaysia, Brunei and Indonesia, further solidifying China’s ascendancy in the region.

The growing influence of China in Southeast Asia is also reflected in its standing within ASEAN. China was among the first dialogue partners to be granted a Comprehensive Partnership Status with ASEAN in 2021, a testament to its deepening ties with the region.

Trade volume between ASEAN and China has reached a record high of US$722 billion in 2022, making China ASEAN’s largest trading partner for 14 consecutive years, despite China’s foreign direct investment to ASEAN lagging behind that of the US, Japan and the European Union.

Source: CNA

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