POTENTIAL FOR WIDER IMPLICATIONS
It’s likely that if the prime minister does depart, key programmes such as defence and semiconductor spending will be taken up by a successor. But don’t underestimate Kishida’s ability to get things done: Abe, too, dreamed of doubling the defense budget but couldn’t get it passed.
Kishida has made it a key policy, even if he hasn’t figured out how to pay for it. Conversely, party unity forced Kishida to retreat from more left-leaning economic policies touted before he took office. A prolonged decline of the Abe faction might endanger that.
The scandal could even affect monetary policy. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda wouldn’t discuss the impact when asked Tuesday (Dec 19). But analysts are already speculating that a sidelining of the Abe faction, which supports easy money, would make it easier for the BOJ to end negative rates. Alternately, Kishida (or a successor) might wish to avoid any more turmoil; that might have been the message his economy minister was sent to deliver when Yoshitaka Shindo, unusually, attended Tuesday’s central bank meeting.
Further out, the ruling coalition makeup and even the party itself could be under threat. Calls to eliminate factions entirely will likely grow. The LDP’s long-standing partnership with junior coalition partner Komeito has been in rough waters for some time, and this could end it; as Harris writes, the “predictable stability that characterised Japanese politics since 2012 is in all likelihood over”.
Japan has largely avoided the trend of populism that has consumed many countries over the past decade. But if it starts to lose seats, the LDP might be forced to make friends with some less mainstream parties – opening the door for more fringe figures.
There’s also a danger that, as has happened elsewhere, this affair could exacerbate public disillusionment with the system itself and spill over into something much less palatable – a concern made worse by the lack of a convincing mainstream opposition that could step in to take over from the LDP.
One way or another, we’re witnessing a moment with the potential to redefine Japanese politics in profound and unexpected ways. This time it’s worth paying attention.
Source: CNA
