Commentary: Should Trump win the US presidential election again, will Kim Jong Un pick up the phone?

In July 2021, North Korea and China normalised bilateral relations by extending the 1961 Treaty of Friendship, Cooperation, and Mutual Assistance for another 20 years.

Russian President Vladimir Putin reached out to Kim for munitions following the invasion of Ukraine, with Russia and North Korea partying like the old Soviet days. Kim’s newfound friendship in Beijing and Moscow earned him their tacit approval for his nuclear and missile programmes.

North Korea is now confident enough to simulate a “tactical nuclear strike” on South Korea, launch a reconnaissance satellite using long-range missile technology, terminate the 2018 military accord with South Korea, and is soon to remilitarise the inter-Korean border.

SOUTH KOREA’S YOON SUK-YEOL TAKES A DIFFERENT APPROACH

A Trump return to the White House could offer Kim several benefits. As a transactional president, Trump is likely to put more pressure on South Korea to contribute more to the alliance and threaten to scale back US military presence in the region. At the same time, Trump is just the sort of character to want to revive personal diplomacy with Kim in a bid to claim success over Biden’s lacklustre North Korea policy.

Still, Trump will not find it easy to wade the same river twice because the approach to North Korea of incumbent South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol is very different from his liberal predecessor Moon Jae-in.