Commentary: Tariffs, an ambassador’s hearing and a diplomat’s visit – what whirlwind of US activity means for Southeast Asia

Mr Trump’s long-standing call for strategic decoupling from China aligns with broader US security concerns, and China will no doubt feature prominently in Mr Rubio’s conversations with ASEAN leaders. But that focus offers little relief to regional governments facing immediate economic fallout from tariffs.

ASEAN leaders also understand the limits of Mr Rubio’s influence, even as he reaffirms US commitment to regional security. They’ve seen firsthand how this administration separates security ties from economic policy – even with treaty allies.

When strategic partners are treated no differently than competitors, and when trade relationships are dictated by political timelines rather than economic logic, confidence in long-term US reliability erodes.

Marc Mealy, executive vice president and chief policy officer of the US-ASEAN Business Council, provided me a broader regional perspective: “If on Aug 1, US importers will have to pay higher tariffs to the US Treasury when purchasing goods made in all 10 ASEAN countries, what happens next will be influenced by the domestic reform, global trade diversification and regional economic integration efforts of ASEAN nations.”

In this new reality, ASEAN won’t walk away from the US, but will recalibrate.

They are adapting to a United States that remains much discussed in Washington DC and continues to show up – but doesn’t follow its old playbook.

Steven Okun serves as CEO of APAC Advisors, a geostrategic and responsible investment consultancy based in Singapore. He served as Deputy General Counsel at the US Department of Transportation in the Administration of President Bill Clinton. Noemie Viterale contributed as well.