THE NEW PRESIDENT
The implications of Thuong’s downfall for Vietnam’s political future, particularly in the race for General Secretary Nguyen Phu Trong’s replacement, hinges on who will fill Thuong’s role.
According to the Party’s regulations, the new president must have served a full term as a member of the Politburo, meaning that potential contenders now include Trong, Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh, National Assembly Chair Vuong Dinh Hue, Standing Member of the Communist Party of Vietnam Secretariat Truong Thi Mai, and Minister of Public Security To Lam.
Trong, who previously held the position of president from 2018 to 2021, may reclaim it, but his health issues could be a significant impediment. Chinh and Hue are unlikely to be interested, as their current positions hold more power than the presidency. This leaves To Lam and Mai as the most probable options.
At 66 years old, Lam may have a strong interest in the position as it could potentially allow him to seek an exception to the Party’s age limit rule and run for the top job in 2026.
However, he may also have reservations about making the switch to this new role. His current position as minister of public security is extremely powerful, particularly in the context of the Party’s ongoing anti-corruption campaign. In contrast, the role of the president primarily involves ceremonial duties.
On the other hand, Mai is also a viable candidate for the position, especially in the eyes of those competing for the role of general secretary. This is due to her relatively weak power base, meaning that she will unlikely be able to leverage the presidency as a means to compete for the Party’s top job in 2026.
Another option would be for the Party to bend its own rules and nominate a different politician who has not yet completed a full term as a Politburo member, but who could potentially bring stability to the system. In this scenario, potential candidates could include Ho Chi Minh City Party Secretary Nguyen Van Nen or Minister of Defence Phan Van Giang.
However, the current potential candidates to replace Trong and their respective camps may not support this decision as they do not want to see the emergence of a new and viable contender that could potentially hinder their own aspirations for the Party’s top job in 2026.
Source: CNA
