CALGARY, Canada: Russian president Vladimir Putin has announced he intends to run in the 2024 presidential election. Putin is almost certain to win what would be his fifth term as Russian president.
The news comes as little surprise. Putin has led Russia for 24 years and polls suggest Russia’s ongoing military campaign in Ukraine has bolstered support for him.
In September, Russian pollsters the Levada Center conducted a survey of Russian attitudes toward the war in Ukraine. When asked whether they supported the Russian military’s actions in Ukraine, 73 per cent of respondents said “yes” or “definitely yes”. In February 2022, the month of Russia’s invasion, that number was 68 per cent.
Some might be skeptical of polls coming out of Russia, but it should be noted these figures are from an organisation that has been deemed a “foreign agent” by the Russian government. It doesn’t matter who does the polling – the data suggests a majority of Russians support the war effort.
At the same time, Putin’s personal approval rating has remained high, running at around 80 per cent for some time, according to Levada. A more recent poll by Russia’s Public Opinion Foundation indicates around 78 per cent of Russians approve of Putin’s work.
However, there was a drop in support for both the war and Putin in late 2022. In the fall of 2022, the Russian government launched a major mobilisation of reservists for the armed forces in response to Ukrainian battlefield successes, first near Kyiv and then Kharkhiv. This led to many young men leaving the country to avoid being drafted into the military.
Russian forces also pulled back from their foothold on the western bank of the Dnipro River at Kherson. Unease with the situation among Russians was reflected in polling numbers during that period, and was tangible on the ground when I visited Moscow and Murmansk in October 2022.
The Russian government’s zero tolerance for public opposition to the war or Putin undoubtedly has some bearing on improved polling. Russia’s defeat of Ukraine’s summer counteroffensive also certainly boosted Russian confidence. Furthermore, the number of Russian soldiers killed in Ukraine remains a closely guarded secret.
However, as I found during time spent in both Moscow and Ryazan in November, many older Russians in particular – from different walks of life – express genuine support for both the war and their president. Why?
Source: CNA
