In April, I wrote about a striking finding from the first wave of my NORC panel of American adults: those with a history of voting more consistently were much more pro-Biden, while less frequent voters were more likely to favor Trump. The gaps were more pronounced than they had been in similar polling I had done in 2016. Now, with the second wave of data from the same respondents, it’s clear that the pattern has persisted with Harris atop the ticket. That has implications for how the final days of campaigning have played out.
Take Black citizens. As Alexandra noted, Harris’ campaign has made concerted efforts in the past couple weeks to appeal to lower-propensity Black voters. But while she seems to have shored up support from this group compared to Biden, there are large gaps in Black support based on voting frequency. In my recent poll, 92% of Black citizens who were eligible and voted in two or three of the last federal elections — 2018, 2020 or 2022 — back Harris, while fewer than 5% support Trump. But among Black citizens who’ve voted in none or just one of the three elections, Harris’ margin drops to 37 percentage points.
Similar patterns are clear among Hispanic and white citizens. Among the former, Harris is up 55% to 37% among the consistent voters, but is actually down by 4 percentage points among those who haven’t voted recently. Similarly, among white citizens who are consistent voters, Harris actually runs slightly better than Trump while among white citizens who didn’t vote in any of the three elections she trails by 30 percentage points.
The most recent Sienna/New York Times polls report a pronounced gradient by prior voter participation as well, with Harris running ahead among likely voters who participated in both the 2022 and 2024 primaries but losing by 12 percentage points among those who voted only in the 2020 presidential election, and by a wider margin of 19 percentage points among those who have never voted.
What these findings mean for today’s election isn’t clear. On the one hand, they suggest that Democrats may benefit from higher levels of support among consistent voters, whose backing is more likely to translate into actual votes. But they also indicate that Trump has more room to grow — and that it’s Republicans who may be hoping for especially high turnout this cycle. That may be part of Trump supporter Elon Musk’s motivation in paying registered voters to sign a petition backing the Constitution, in an apparent effort to encourage new voter registrations.
Conversely, these patterns may limit the efficacy of Democrats’ get-out-the-vote efforts. That’s because even among Black citizens, a group that Democrats have historically targeted for mobilization, the surveys indicate that people who are on the cusp of whether or not to vote are less pro-Harris than more consistent voters. As a consequence, Democratic door-knocking and other mobilization strategies may not translate into Democratic votes with quite the same efficacy as in prior elections.
Source: abc news
