Kakhovka dam collapse: Analysts weigh in on who has more at stake amid Russia and Ukraine blame game

The Russians, on the other hand, have “mismanaged” the dam, he noted.

“It has had high water levels recently, and there appears to have been some structural damage prior to the possible explosions that caused the breaches. So, it is possible that the Russians, both by mismanagement and purposeful blowing up of the dam, have carried out this act,” he said.

However, Dr Muraviev pointed out that Russia may not have any incentive to destroy the dam given that it was feeding power into its electricity plants. The breach also disrupts water supply to Crimea, he said.

For a long time, Ukraine has denied the supply of freshwater resources to Crimea, a peninsula that Russia invaded and subsequently annexed from Ukraine in 2014, he added. After invading Ukraine, the Russians restored freshwater supply to the peninsula.

However, with the breach, there is a long-term risk of Crimea once again suffering from freshwater shortage.

“Whoever is responsible for the destruction of the dam was pursuing short-term and medium-term gains,” said Dr Muraviev.

SPRING COUNTER-OFFENSIVE

While Kyiv itself has not confirmed that it has launched the much-awaited spring counter-offensive against Russia, Dr Muraviev said that “by the sounds of it, it has”.

“The fact that they used – in my estimate – up to seven brigades, which is a very significant number and they began rolling out weapon armour that they’ve been receiving since the start of the year, that points out to me that it may actually be at least the initial stage of that offensive,” he said.

However, he said he would not call it a counter-offensive because in the majority of areas where Ukraine launched this operation, the Russians were sitting in defensive positions.