Limited ceasefire on energy targets a necessary step towards ending Russia-Ukraine war, say analysts

IS RUSSIA SINCERE ON PEACE?

Meanwhile, the analysts said Russia believes it has an edge on the battlefield and at the negotiating table. 

“Putin seems to want to delay any real ceasefire, any real peace talks because at the moment, the Russians, militarily, have the upper hand, but not by a huge way,” said Larres. 

“They are conquering little slivers of territory all the time which, of course, from a Ukrainian point of view, is quite depressing.”

Analysts said the Russians are unlikely to agree to a full ceasefire except on their terms, including an end to all Western military aid and intelligence to Ukraine and establishing control of lands that they claim to be theirs.

James said it was “really unthinkable” to him that Ukraine could be left without any defence whatsoever.

“A lot of the defence that is provided is not in the form of material assistance, but in the form of intelligence. So you really need to keep this in order to make the security of Ukraine in the future credible,” he added.

As for how sincere Putin is about working towards peace, Larres said the Russian leader is a “skillful negotiator” who believes he now has the upper hand.

“There’s no need for him to come to a quick peace deal, so why should he then not delay such talks?” Larres added. 

“He certainly wants to be back on the world stage as an equal partner to the US, but he doesn’t really want to offer any concessions in return or as few concessions as he can get away with.”

Yet observers believe Trump is prepared to go far to broker this peace deal. 

“Trump seems to be impatient, and he doesn’t seem to be a very patient negotiator who takes his time,” said Larres, adding that the US president is mostly interested in going down in world history as a peacemaker. 

“He wants to achieve peace as quickly as he can. He certainly doesn’t want to wait many, many months. He wants to come to a conclusion of the war very quickly, and Putin will exploit that.”