Asia

Commentary: China is testing Trump in the South China Sea and the region is watching

An even more dangerous encounter followed on Feb 19 near Scarborough Shoal, when a Chinese helicopter flew within 3m of a Philippine patrol aircraft near Scarborough Shoal, according to the Philippine Coast Guard.

Then there’s the matter of the Chinese Coast Guard ships’ lingering presence in the Philippines Exclusive Economic Zone between Scarborough Shoal and the coast of northern Luzon since January. The area, while inside Beijing’s nine-dash line, is well over 100km from any disputed territory.

March and April saw Beijing and Manila trading accusations after incidents in the air and at sea near Scarborough Shoal.

FREEDOM OF NAVIGATION

The Philippines’ maritime agencies are outmatched by the Chinese Coast Guard, which is the world’s largest white-hull force (as opposed to the “grey hulls” of the navy). Yet unlike in Duterte’s term, Philippine agencies are contesting Chinese activities and publicising incidents, citing President Ferdinand Marcos Jr’s commitment that “not a square inch of Philippine territory is surrendered to any foreign power”.

American FONOPs in the South China Sea are part of the calculus. They challenge China’s extra-legal claims in the South China Sea, by asserting navigation rights and sailing military vessels in disputed waters.

In 2017, the first Trump administration placed the existing FONOP programme on hold while the president sought to build a relationship with Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping.

At the time of writing, there have been no publicly reported FONOP in the South China Sea since Dec 6, 2024.

Source: CNA

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