Analysis: Thaksin could walk free sooner than expected, but his future is likely as a backseat driver in Thai politics

BANGKOK: It may not be long before convicted ex-prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra returns to his seat of power in Thai politics after his prison sentences were swiftly – and significantly – commuted by the king. 

Observers say this means Thaksin may soon be released on parole, considering his advanced age, short remaining prison term, and how fast his initial sentences were cut down from eight years to just one last week.

But the political future for the 74-year-old billionaire, now serving time in a hospital suite in downtown Bangkok, is likely at most that of a back-seat driver who navigates the ruling Pheu Thai party through a new political landscape.

It is not just because his status as a former convict would disqualify him from taking up political office under current Thai laws, but also because of the challenges he would face in commanding public support, given how Thailand has changed markedly compared to the one he fled from 15 years ago, say observers.

Dr Yuttaporn Issarachai, a political scientist from Sukhothai Thammathirat Open University, said Mr Thaksin is likely to be a behind-the-scenes player who helps his party Pheu Thai strengthen its political future.

“He definitely won’t re-enter politics; his time has already passed. But of course, he’s more likely to play an informal role and stay in the background, strategising,” he told CNA.

A BEHIND-THE-SCENES PLAYER

From the moment his plane touched down at Bangkok’s private jet terminal on Aug 22, Thaksin’s life changed dramatically, and quickly.

He was sentenced to eight years in jail for various convictions in absentia, involving malfeasance, abuse of power and illegal share-holding through nominees, and sent to Bangkok Remand Prison, where he was kept alone in the medical wing – for less than a day.

Citing health conditions, the authorities moved him in the middle of the night to a hospital in the city centre, where he has been warded in a VIP room overlooking one of Bangkok’s most prestigious golf courses.

Then, eight days later, his prison term was reduced to one year.

Analysts believe the former premier could soon be allowed to walk free on parole and proceed to wield political influence.