Migration ‘used to mobilise voters’ ahead of elections in Slovakia and Poland

A surge in illegal migration along the Balkan route into Slovakia has local politicians calling for increased border control in recent weeks. This comes ahead of knife-edge legislative elections on September 30 in which Slovakia’s two-time prime minister Robert Fico and his pro-Russian populist SMER-SD party are hoping to stage a comeback.

Poland has also seen the re-emergence of migration as a hot-button issue ahead of parliamentary elections on October 15. The ruling conservative Law and Justice (PiS) party, fighting a close election against the centre-right Civic Coalition (KO) party, has made migration a central campaign issue with the objective of shoring up votes.

“For some parties further on the right, migration was always a no-go,” says Alena Kudzko, Vice President for Policy and Programming at GLOBSEC think tank in Bratislava. Yet over the past few weeks, more centrist leaning parties have started campaigning on migration in the hope of a last-minute boost in votes, she adds.

The narratives were similar across the board, with “many politicians declaring ‘we should protect Slovakia; migration is not safe for Slovaks’”, says Kudzko. Hoping to ride the wave of anti-migration sentiment prevalent in Slovak society, even the pro-European social-democratic party HLAS-SD published billboards stating, “Stop illegal migration” just weeks before the election.

A reintroduction of border checks in the region

An uptick in illegal migration on the Balkan route to central Europe has also prompted some Slovak politicians to call for tighter border controls.

Slovakia has seen a surge of migrants, many from Afghanistan and Syria, in recent months. In the first eight months of 2023, the country registered approximately 24,500 migrants who had entered illegally – most of them from Serbia through Hungary.

The rising number of illegal migrants crossing its borders prompted neighbouring Poland to introduce checks on vehicles crossing the border from Slovakia on September 25. This came after the Czech Republic and Austria reintroduced border controls with Slovakia last year to stem the flow of immigrants.

Some politicians blame Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban for the sudden influx as part of an effort to boost the chances of fellow anti-migrant politician Fico of returning to office on September 30. Many migrants now in Slovakia had no difficulty entering the country from Hungary, and Orban is believed to have released more than 1,400 people from prison who had been sentenced for human trafficking.

Fico has regularly highlighted the surge in illegal migration during the election campaign. “We want to remind the Slovak government that it has all options — legislative, technical and personnel — to revive border controls on the Slovak-Hungarian border,” he said during a press conference broadcasted on Facebook.

Slovakia’s caretaker government headed by Prime Minister Ludovít Odor has said it is impossible to seal the border with Hungary, which stretches over 650 km. It has sent up to 500 soldiers to help police patrolling border areas and taken measures to register migrants quickly.

Migration was ranked in a recent poll as the third item on a list of voter’s concerns, with 15% of voters saying they were worried about illegal migration. “Politicians are trying to appeal to this concerned segment of the population calling for a much harsher position on migration,” said Kudzko.

The parties that campaign on tightening migration policies know the issue is even higher on their supporters’ agenda. Between 20-30% of voters of SMER-SD and the far-right parties, SNS and Republika, said that migration is Slovakia’s biggest problem – a much greater percentage than across the entire population. 

But Kudzko believes that the illegal migration situation in Slovakia has been exaggerated in the runup to elections. “The truth is that most people don’t stay. Transit countries, like Slovakia, know that they just need to wave migrants through,” she says, while comparing the situation with that of Poland, where migrants who managed to cross the Polish-Belarusian border often continued on to Germany.

‘A fear of migration’ in Poland

In Poland, a battle is playing out between PiS and Civic Platform for the future control of parliament, with migration “being used to build up emotion and mobilise voters”, according to Andrzej Bobinski, a political analyst with Polityka Insight. 

Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki announced on September 29 that Poland will uphold its veto on a European Union migration pact as the bloc seeks a deal for the sharing of the responsibility for asylum seekers who reach Europe outside of official border crossings.

Poland’s leaders, expressing their opposition to the European Union’s plan to relocate migrants and asylum seekers within the bloc, have frequently argued that they have already fulfilled their migrant quota by welcoming around one million Ukrainian refugees since the beginning of the war.

A sentiment of fatigue with the war in Ukraine is also setting in. The far-right party Confederacja (Confederation), says Poland is not getting the gratitude it deserves for arming Ukraine and accepting its refugees.

The emergence of Confederation has put pressure on the Polish political establishment as PiS may have to accept the latter as a coalition partner to stay in power.

Several factors could play into the ruling party’s hand on Election Day. “The migrant crisis on the border with Belarus in [2021]  … caused a big scare in Poland. Pis built a wall and they keep organising events like press conferences around the wall every day,” says Bobinski.

The ruling party led by Jaroslaw Kaczynski also frequently uses photos of recent events in Lampedusa. Earlier this month, some 8,500 migrants arrived on the tiny Italian fishing island in the space of a few days, overwhelming the tourist destination.

“People are not changing their views, they will either vote for PiS or KO. The only thing both parties can do is mobilise their voters which belong to highly polarised camps,” says Bobinski.

Yet, “whatever happens at the end of the day, for many people at the bottom of their soul, there is a fear of migration”, concludes Bobinski.

(With AFP)