Pacific island nations call for greater focus on sea level rise as UN and experts warn of urgent global threat

Dr Meg Keen, a senior fellow in the Pacific Islands Program at the Lowy Institute, said it was no coincidence that Mr Guterres had decided to once again visit the region ahead of key summits in upcoming months.

These include the UN Summit for the Future in New York, running from Sep 22 to 23, designed to enhance global governance, and yearly climate negotiations at COP29 in Azerbaijan from Nov 11 to 22.

“It is a way of putting political pressure on the system. He’s trying to build momentum and it has helped in the past to put a spotlight on countries whose very existence is at stake,” she said.

“And he’s trying to build that momentum in every tangible way, and it’s just not in the Pacific. This is pretty critical here, but it’s critical for you too, and I think that’s why he’s trying to make it as tangible as possible.

“These are about real people, real places. This is newsworthy, and this is a global issue. And so he’s saying the Pacific exemplifies why we need to act.”

“LACK OF RESEARCH, LACK OF ATTENTION”

The joint offensive on sea level rise comes in the wake of a new technical report from the UN, released on Monday, showing that it could be happening faster than previously thought.

The technical briefing combined previous findings and new science to give a global status update, highlighting the Pacific region as particularly vulnerable.

It found that tides between 1990 and 2020 had risen 21cm in Nuku’alofa, the Tongan capital playing host to the PIF, a rate nearly twice the global average.

The global sea level change recorded in 2023, relative to 1993 levels, was the highest ever in modern times, dating back to the 19th century. It has also been accelerating faster than any period over the past 3,000 years.

“Because of sea level rise, the ocean is transforming from being a lifelong friend into a growing threat,” the UN’s World Meteorological Organization Secretary-General Celeste Saulo told reporters in Nuku’alofa, Tonga, on Tuesday.

The main causes of the phenomenon are well known – primarily the melting of land ice and the expansion of seawater as it warms. In the latest report, scientists released new findings based on studies of ice melt dynamics.

“They have a lot more information now on understanding the types of tipping points, the ice structure itself, which is its own set of science, when these ice sheets could break off, when this melt would occur, and where this fits into the projections we have,” said Dr Rosanne Martyr, a senior scientist at Climate Analytics and a reviewer of the report.

Current climate policies and action have the world on track for 2.7 degrees Celsius of warming by the end of the century. Under that scenario, sea level rise of 20cm above 2020 levels could occur by 2050 and 56cm by the end of the century.

It would mean devastating impacts for low-lying areas, with most of the Pacific’s islands and atolls only a couple of metres above sea level. Ninety per cent of Pacific Island people live within 5km of the coast.

“They do feel the largest impact and so they use their voice to push the levers where they can, and that important lever is on emissions. It’s only going to get worse if we don’t do more to reduce our emissions,” said Dr Martyr.

Dr George Carter, co-director of the Australian National University Pacific Institute said the most vulnerable nations – among them Tuvalu, Kiribati and the Marshall Islands – were the ones spearheading the concerted effort at the PIF and in other forums to lift sea level rise on the global agenda.

Their respective governments have shown concern about the lack of policy, funding and research put into sea level rise, he told CNA from Tonga.

“While you have projects that focus on forestry and focus on disasters in terms of responding to cyclones through humanitarian services, you don’t necessarily have programmes or projects that focus on sea level rise,” he said.

“Because of that, there’s not only a lack of research, but also a lack of attention.