Polls open in Guinea with junta leader favoured to win first presidential vote since 2021 coup

Polls opened in Guinea on Sunday in the country’s first presidential election since the 2021 coup that ousted President Alpha Condé.

The vote is being held under a new constitution approved in a referendum in September. It revokes a ban on military leaders running for office and extends the presidential term from five years to seven.

Junta leader General Mamadi Doumbouya is expected to win the election after clamping down on dissent. Of the eight other candidates in the race, he faces no major opponent. Two opposition candidates have been barred from running and two others forced into exile.

Doumbouya has built his campaign around major infrastructure projects and reforms launched since he took power four years ago. His closest rival, Yero Baldé of the Democratic Front of Guinea, is running on a platform of anti-corruption and economic growth.

The junta’s most important project has been the Simandou iron ore project, a 75 percent Chinese-owned mega-mining project at the world’s largest iron ore deposit which began production last month after decades of delays.

Authorities say that a national development plan tied to the Simandou project aims to create tens of thousands of jobs and diversify the economy through investments in agriculture, education, transport, technology and health.

“In four years, he (Doumbouya) has connected Guinean youth to information and communication technologies,” said Mamadama Touré, a high school student wearing a T-shirt with Doumbouya’s image in the capital of Conakry, as he cited digital skills training programs put in place by the authorities.

Despite Guinea’s rich mineral resources — including as the world’s biggest exporter of bauxite, used to make aluminum — more than half of its 15 million people are experiencing record levels of poverty and food insecurity, according to the World Food Program.

“This vote is the hope of young people, especially for us unemployed,” said Idrissa Camara, an 18-year-old resident of Conakry, who said he has been unemployed since graduating from university five years ago. “I’m forced to do odd jobs to survive. I hope this vote will improve the standard of living and the quality of life in Guinea,” he added.

‘Return to league of nations’

The vote is the latest such election among African countries that have seen a surge in coups in recent years. At least 10 countries on the continent have experienced soldiers forcefully taking power after accusing elected leaders of failing to provide good governance and security for citizens.

“This election will open a new page in Guinea’s history and mark the country’s return to the league of nations,” said Guinea political analyst Aboubacar Sidiki Diakité. “Doumbouya is undoubtedly the favorite in this presidential election because the main opposition political parties have been sidelined and the General Directorate of Elections, the body that oversees the presidential election, is under the supervision of the government,” he added.

In addition to a weakened opposition, activists and rights groups say Guinea has since the coup seen civil society leaders silenced, critics abducted and the press censored. More than 50 political parties were dissolved last year in a move authorities claimed was to “clean up the political chessboard” despite widespread criticism.

There was heavy security in Conakry and other parts of Guinea with nearly 12,000 police officers among security forces mobilised and checkpoints set up along major roads. Authorities had said on Saturday that security forces “neutralised” an armed group with “subversive intentions threatening national security” after gunshots were heard in Conakry’s Sonfonia neighborhood.

More than six million registered voters are expected to cast ballots with results due within 48 hours. There will be a runoff if no candidate wins a majority of the vote.