Prigozhin’s death: Show of strength or admission of weakness for Putin?

Exactly two months after Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin initiated a short-lived rebellion that challenged Russian President Vladimir Putin’s authority, the man dubbed “Putin’s chef” was on a private jet which crashed on Wednesday, August 23 in the Tver region, northwest of Moscow according to Russian aviation agency Rosaviatsia.

All ten people on board, seven passengers and three crew members, were killed, said Rosaviatsia. In addition to Prigozhin, the passenger list included Dmitry Utkin, a shadowy figure presented as Wagner’s co-founder and deputy chief. Utkin’s call sign during his days as a Russian intelligence officer was “Wagner”, after the German composer, and it was the name given to the mercenary group, according to media reports.

Dead man walking

After a wild night of speculation about the fate of Putin’s notorious former-friend-turned-pariah after the June 23 attempted mutiny, there were still several grey areas on Thursday about what exactly happened. The Kremlin so far has remained silent, refusing to confirm reports from the Interfax news agency that the bodies of the 10 people on board had been found.

Most commentators on Russian social networks and analysts interviewed by FRANCE 24 assume that Prigozhin’s death is the most likely outcome at this stage. The Wagner group also appears to be working on this principle: on Wednesday night, the windows of their St Petersburg headquarters were illuminated to form a cross.

Since his aborted march on Moscow on June 23, Prigozhin appeared to be a man living on borrowed time. “It’s a slightly more dramatic ending than we might have expected, but it’s not surprising either,” said Jeff Hawn, a specialist in Russian security issues and non-resident fellow at the New Line Institute, a US geopolitical research center.

But the vacuum created by the lack of confirmed information has been filled with speculation. There is no definitive evidence that Prigozhin was the target of a Kremlin-sponsored assassination. Some pro-Putin Russian commentators accused Ukraine of responsibility, while others blamed the plane crash on a technical fault, as The Moscow Times noted.

But several coincidences have not escaped observers. There is, of course, the highly symbolic timing of the crash, precisely two months after the aborted mutiny.

In addition, “the plane was carrying both Yevgeny Prigozhin and Dmitri Utkin, which is very rare. The two men almost never travel together, precisely to avoid this type of scenario”, noted Stephen Hall, a political scientist specialising in Russia at the University of Bath in southwestern England.

The plane also crashed just as Putin was giving a speech to celebrate the 80th anniversary of the USSR’s victory over Nazi Germany, in which he hailed the “loyalty” of Russian soldiers in Ukraine.

On the same day, Russian media reported the dismissal of Yevgeny Surovikin from his post as the air force commander-in-chief. The once much-feared “General Armageddon”, as he was known, had not appeared in public since the June 23 mutiny attempt, and was suspected of supporting Prigozhin. “This gives the impression that the Kremlin has decided to turn the page on the mutiny once and for all,” said Jenny Mathers, a Russia specialist at Aberystwyth University in Wales.

Read moreRussia’s top generals disappear from public view after failed Wagner rebellion

A ‘clear signal’ to the Russian elite

Among the myriad of scenarios circulating, “the most likely remains that of an operation scaffolded by the GRU,” said Mathers, referring to the Russian military intelligence directorate.

On Wednesday, Prigozhin “would have been on a return trip from Mali because he had heard that the GRU was trying to get Wagner’s mercenaries out of the way and put its own men in. It was a way for the GRU to force the Wagner chief to move in a hurry, enabling the army to know exactly which flight Yevgeny Prigozhin was on”, added Hall.

In this scenario, the modus operandi would not have been chosen at random. Bringing down a plane “is a radical solution with very little discretion. It’s a clear signal to the Russian elite that Vladimir Putin won’t let any betrayal go unchallenged”, said Hall.

Many Russia commentators noted the fact that it took two months to decapitate the Wagner group. “That may seem like a long time when you consider how much Vladimir Putin hates traitors, but we mustn’t forget that the Kremlin was taken by surprise by the mutiny. The security services probably had to take some time to work out the details, and make sure they were in control of all the possible consequences of such an operation,” said Mathers.

The Kremlin’s delay may also have been “because Vladimir Putin wasn’t sure what to do with Yevgeny Prigozhin”, said Hawn. “It should not be forgotten that the Russian president had initially assured him [Prigozhin] that nothing would happen to him if he chose exile in Belarus, and Vladimir Putin is considered to be someone who keeps his word,” added Hawn.

But the mercenary chief then continued to move around Russia and abroad as if nothing had happened, appearing at the Russia-Africa summit in Saint Petersburg last month – and making a video appearance, which appeared to have been filmed in Africa – a few days ago.

Hawn believes this behavior may have “convinced the master of the Kremlin to seal the fate of Wagner’s boss once and for all”.

Putin is no longer the ‘man of order’

Dealing with the Prigozhin problem was becoming even more urgent as the military situation in Ukraine was not getting any easier for Russia. Prigozhin had become one of the most virulent critics of the conduct of Russian military operations and “he embodied an alternative to the army’s way of doing things on the front, which could appeal to those who had doubts”, explained Hall.

An assassination would therefore be a way for the Kremlin to assert authority and indicate that no alternative will be tolerated from now on.

But many Russia observers believe the latest Prigozhin chapter remains a Kremlin admission of weakness. “Vladimir Putin has built his entire political persona around the idea that he is the one who has brought order back to Russia. The least we can say is that the internal situation has become very chaotic, and those in power are no longer able to deal with problems discreetly,” said Hawn.

With the probable demise of Prigozhin and Utkin, the future of the Wagner Group remains in doubt. “This organisation has outlived its usefulness as a political and military tool for Vladimir Putin, and is likely to be consigned to oblivion,” said Hall.

(This article is a translation of the original in French.)