LONDON: A claim of responsibility by Islamic State for a massacre of Russian concertgoers near Moscow appears to be plausible and fits with a pattern of previous marauding attacks by militants, security analysts said on Saturday (Mar 23).
One leading expert said, however, it was unusual and striking that the assailants had formed and executed an escape plan instead of pursuing their rampage to the point of being gunned down.
Islamic State, also known as IS or ISIS, issued statements claiming responsibility for Friday evening’s attack in which Russian investigators said 133 people were killed, and published a photograph of the alleged gunmen.
Russia has not said who it believes was behind the mass shooting, but has stated, without providing evidence, that the perpetrators had contacts in Ukraine. It said the gunmen fled by car and were captured hours later near the Ukrainian border. Ukraine, defending against Russia’s invasion since 2022, has emphatically denied any involvement.
Adam Dolnik, a Czech security expert who has studied past Islamist attacks in India, Kenya, Russia and elsewhere, said the Islamic State claim appeared credible, although “that will not stop the Russians from leveraging this for their foreign policy agenda vis-a-vis Ukraine and the West”.
Dolnik said in a telephone interview that attacks by marauding gunmen were a typical modus operandi in recent years for IS and al Qaeda.
He noted Islamic State has a record of previous attacks against Russia, including the bombing of a 2015 flight from the Egyptian resort of Sharm el-Sheikh to St Petersburg and a 2022 attack on the Russian embassy in Kabul. Earlier this month, Russia’s FSB said it foiled an attack on a Moscow synagogue by ISIS-K, an affiliate of the group.
“If you line up all these things together, then I think it’s completely conceivable that this would be an IS attack,” he said.
Source: CNA
