Snap Insight: PM Paetongtarn’s fall over leaked call signals probable demise of Shinawatra clan in Thailand

DEMISE OF THE SHINAWATRA DYNASTY

Tuesday’s development may however signal the demise of the Shinawatra dynasty. Separately the same day, Thaksin, 75, appeared at a court in Bangkok to face accusations of breaching a lese majeste law that shields Thailand’s king from criticism. The trial could last for weeks.

The Shinawatra clan’s influence has been eroding in recent years. Ms Paetongtarn has been unable to connect with the wider Thai public the way her father and aunt did, and their political party’s policy proposals have not resonated as they did in the past. Support for Ms Paetongtarn fell to 9.2 per cent in a recent poll, compared with 30.9 per cent in the first quarter.

The emergence of other reformist parties such as the Move Forward Party – which was dissolved in 2024 and later regrouped as the People’s Party – signalled that the people have alternatives, said Titipol Phakdeewanich, a political science lecturer at Ubon Ratchathani University. 

The Shinawatras were under the illusion they could still capture the people’s imagination, he said. “They cannot blame anyone but themselves” for this crisis, he told me.

“Even if the Shinawatra network somehow survives in name, its cohesion and political power will be far weaker from now on,” Pavin Chachavalpongpun, professor at Kyoto University’s Centre for Southeast Asian Studies said in an interview.

The episode also shows how cosy personal relationships between leaders – a characteristic of the 10-member ASEAN group which includes Thailand and Cambodia – can crash.

“The ASEAN way of ‘man-to-man’ relationships and informal negotiation failed spectacularly here, because those personal ties were weaponised,” Professor Pavin told me. “Over reliance on personal relationships rather than institutional frameworks leaves diplomacy dangerously vulnerable to leaks, manipulation and power plays.”

Nirmal Ghosh, a former foreign correspondent, is an author and independent writer based in Singapore.