Snap Insight: Thai general election – opposition parties win big but house of cards could still fall

AN OPPOSITION COALITION

But Thai voters have called for change at the ballot box before. In the last general election in 2019, Pheu Thai had won the most seats but was unable to secure the numbers for a coalition government. Move Forward’s predecessor Future Forward Party was the third-largest party in parliament after the 2019 election.

It’s likely that Pheu Thai and Move Forward Party will form a coalition government. Palang Prachrath (led by General Prawit Wongsuwon) may cut a deal with Pheu Thai and Move Forward Party.

Even though Move Forward’s Pita had vowed to form a government that is “anti-dictator-backed, military-backed parties”, such a coalition would break up the military-skewed senate’s stranglehold on the subsequent race to the premiership.

SPECTRE OF A MILITARY COUP?

However, the entire house of cards will fall in the case of a military coup, in a country that has seen two military coups ousting democratically elected governments in the last two decades. Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha may not rule out military action yet, as there are many military figures who have been bound to his Senate and parties since the 2014 coup.