Mr Michael Montesano, associate senior fellow at ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute, told CNA938’s Asia First: “Move Forward believes that in order to advance its very ambitious legislative agenda, a party figure needs to be the speaker.”
Mr Pita’s party has the most radical policy agenda of any party that competed in the elections.
It is proposing reforms to the military and to amend section 112 of the Thai Criminal Code, also known as lese majeste. Currently, the law makes it a crime to defame, insult, or threaten the monarch.
“Move Forward knows that unless it controls the house speaker role, there is a really good chance that any other party in that position is going to de-prioritise some of these contentious reforms,” said Mr Cheng.
“This is because other parties want to maintain some kind of peace with the military, to minimise the risk of a military coup.”
Pheu Thai has urged Move Forward to rethink its proposal to amend the law to reduce prison terms for offences against the monarchy.
COALITION REMAINS STRONG
Nonetheless, negotiations between the two main parties remain “very fluid”, said Mr Cheng, explaining the two sides understand that working together is their best chance at forming a government.
“Right now, Pheu Thai is still very much intent on working with Move Forward. While it realises that there’s a somewhat seemingly easier option of working with other incumbent coalition parties, (the move could) be seen as a major compromise among its party base. And if so, most likely in the next election, Move Forward will snap up many of the votes that have gone to Pheu Thai in this election,” he said.
Pheu Thai has proposed that should Move Forward fail to get Mr Pita elected as prime minister, it would put forth its own candidate for the role and cede the speaker position instead, said Mr Cheng.
The two parties will likely work towards an amicable agreement in fear that a prolonged impasse could trigger the military to step in.
“For Thailand, a military coup can never be ruled out. The military has shown time and again that they are not afraid to resort to that measure. If we see the security situation become significantly destabilised, the military could use it as a context to come in and restore peace and order,” Mr Cheng told CNA’s Asia First.
“That could result in various other forms of interference, that would cripple, if not oust, the civilian government that would be formed in the next month or so.”
Source: CNA
