US not withdrawing from Iraq but agreement could lead to troop reductions

The U.S. and Iraq on Friday announced an agreement to end the anti-ISIS coalition military presence in Iraq that over the next two years, a move that could lead to a reduction of the 2,500 American troops still in Iraq and maintain the 900 troops in northeast Syria.

U.S. officials stressed that the agreement did not mean the U.S. was conducting a U.S. troop withdrawal from Iraq but a transition to a new U.S.-Iraq military relationship separate from the decade-long coalition.

In a joint statement, both United States and Iraq laid out a timeline where the coalition military presence in Iraq would end no later than the end of September 2025 as Iraq transitions to bilateral security relationships that “supports Iraqi forces and maintains pressure on ISIS.”

Under the agreement, Iraq will allow the U.S. military presence in Iraq in order to provide support for the 900 U.S. troops stationed in northeast Syria to prevent a resurgence of ISIS.

The removal of American military troops in Iraq has been a main concern for the government of Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed al-Sudani that faced constant pressure from Iranian-backed groups opposed to their presence.

Over the past year, Iranian-backed militia groups have carried out more than 170 rocket and drone attacks on U.S. military bases in Iraq and Syria.

Earlier this year, President Joe Biden and al-Sudani set up a process for negotiations between the two countries to lay out a future military relationship that could lead to a reduction in the U.S. military troop presence in Iraq.

“Iraq thanks the Coalition for the backing and support provided to the Iraqi security forces to confront this common threat and secure ISIS’s territorial defeat in Iraq,” said the statement. “At the forefront of these countries has been the United States of America, which stood with Iraq in difficult circumstances.”

The agreement does not contain specifics on how many of the 2,500 U.S. troops will be withdrawn, the pace of the withdrawal of what bases will remain in use over the next two years.

“The U.S. is not withdrawing from Iraq,” Sabrina Singh, the Pentagon’s deputy press secretary told reporters Friday at a separate briefing. “Our footprint is going to be changing within the country.”

Ahead of the announcement, U.S. officials emphasized that the agreement was not withdrawal of U.S. military troops but a transition away from the coalition military presence that was established in 2014 as ISIS swept across Syria into Iraq coming as close as 40 miles from Baghdad.

“I just want to foot stomp the fact that this is not a withdrawal, this is a transition,” said a senior administration official said.

“It’s a transition from a coalition military mission to an expanded us Iraqi bilateral security relationship,” the official added. “Those members of the coalition that are going that want to remain or continue to talk a security relationship that is entirely up to them.”

The officials stressed that discussions about the role and size of the future U.S. military presence in Iraq will be the topic of future U.S.-Iraq discussions.

How the transition plays out will be determined by ongoing conversations with the Iraqi government over matters such as “what is the situation with ISIS, what is the environment we’re working in, and what it what are the capabilities,” the senior administration official said.

The anti-ISIS coalition of 87 countries will continue exist to prevent a resurgence of ISIS but will no longer have a military presence in Iraq. Some of the countries with troops in Iraq had been pressing for an agreement to end that mission.